Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 230536 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 136 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure should maintain dry weather through most of Monday as it slides east. Slow moving low pressure will return rain chances Monday night through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Ridging should maintain dry weather tonight. Above average temperatures are expected tonight as a light east wind should limit radiational cooling. A low level inversion should also limit E-SE downsloping wind gust potential. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Monday will remain dry during the day but rain chances will begin later in the day as an upper low approaches the forecast area. Rain is likely for much of Tuesday as the low transitions over the Ohio valley before beginning to taper off early Wednesday morning as latest progs place the low east of the forecast area at that point. Rain amounts are forecast to range from just under a half inch across north of I-80...increasing to the south with 1-1.25 possible across southern zones. Temperatures will max out a few degrees above climatology Monday before the rain arrives. Cooler temperatures due to the clouds and rain are figured for Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A followup shortwave will kick a cold front across the region on Wednesday, keeping temperatures a shade below normal into Thursday. Cannot rule out a few snowflakes mixing in Wednesday night/Thursday morning behind the front, as 850 mb temperatures could drop below 0C once again. A dry interlude is possible Thursday afternoon/evening in brief surface ridging. Precipitation chances return Friday and Saturday as another shortwave arrives. Some model solutions close this off into an upper low over or near our region, while others are more progressive. In any case, below normal temperatures should continue. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period, although clouds will begin to thicken and lower this afternoon and evening. Light rain may arrive after 00Z as well, but minor if any restrictions are expected through the evening. Wind gusts of up to 25 knots are possible in downsloping along and just west of the ridges overnight. More general gusts of up to 20 knots are expected areawide this afternoon out of the southeast. OUTLOOK... MVFR/IFR conditions are likely late Monday night through Wednesday for all sites with slow moving low pressure.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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