Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 231540 AAB AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1140 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure should maintain dry weather today. Slow-moving low pressure will return rain chances late tonight through mid- week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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No substantive changes are needed to the forecast at this time. Based on 12Z RAOB analysis, maxima should peak in the low-mid 70s in most areas under strong insolation. Previous discussion follows... Ridging should maintain dry weather today, though high clouds should increase on the nern side of an approaching TN Valley low. Sely flow and mixing should result in high temperatures above seasonal levels.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Ridging should shift enewd this evening as vertically-stacked low pressure tracks slowly across the TN Valley. An initial shortwave in sly flow ahead of the low should support rain chances overnight after precipitation overcomes the dry air in place. Better rain chances are expected late tonight and Tuesday with increasing deep-layer moisture and dynamic support as the upper low drifts newd, despite downsloping, shallow sely low-level flow. The sely wind is expected to become gusty on the lee side of the ridges, though model sounding progs indicate the strongest winds capped above an inversion with gusts of 20-30 kt expected. The upper low is expected to be absorbed by an upper trough as it crosses the lower Great Lakes and OH Valley regions on Wed, with rain chances continuing. Rain chances should diminish Wed night as the trough shifts ewd to New England. Temperatures are expected to be below seasonal average.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Model ensembles and WPC progs indicate dry weather should return for late week under weak surface high pressure. Rain chances return as a trough advances out of the Midwest and crosses the region late Friday through part of Saturday. Dry weather should return through early next week as surface high pressure builds under a NE CONUS upper trough. Below average temperatures are expected to continue, with a return to near seasonal level early in the week with rising heights and upper ridging. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period, although clouds will begin to thicken and lower this afternoon and evening. Light rain will mainly arrive after 00Z as the initially dry low levels hinder the advance of precipitation northward. MVFR cig and vis may finally start to arrive towards sunrise. Wind gusts of up to 20 knots are expected areawide this afternoon out of the southeast. OUTLOOK... MVFR/IFR conditions are likely Tuesday through Wednesday for all sites with slow moving low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ Update...Kramar

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