Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 190551 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 151 AM EDT Sat May 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A series of disturbances will keep rain chances in the forecast through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... An upper low across the Midwest is expected to open into a trough by Saturday morning. Weak shortwave support in southerly flow ahead of the low, and a weak warm front lifting N, should keep light rain chances across the area tonight. Maintained likely to categorical POPs mainly E of I 79 where the most favorable moisture and shortwave support is expected. The front and shortwave support should exit Saturday morning with rain chances diminishing. The Midwestern trough is progged to approach the Upper OH Valley region in the afternoon. Numerous showers/tstms are expected to develop as the trough approaches and convective thresholds are met. Marginal speed shear and instability could result in a few strong storms with gusty wind. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Any storms that develop during the prime heating hours Saturday will weaken shortly after dusk. They won`t be diurnal driven, so will maintain chance pops through the night as the heart of the H5 trough axis crosses around 6Z Sunday. The columns dries out Sunday per differential anticyclonic vorticity advection and weak high pressure across the upper Great Lakes. Low pressure crossing IL/IA area will spread a warm front through the region Sunday night. No QPF is forecast at this juncture with the boundary. However, as H5 heights fall during the overnight hours, a decaying thunderstorm complex from the midwest could track across the area toward dawn. Elevated instability is not impressive thus do not expect more than brief heavy rain. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Highlights: - Weather Pattern Remains Active - Above Normal Temperatures - Finally a String of Two Dry Days by Week`s End Little to no change in the pattern the first part of the week. Southwesterly flow continues to pump low level moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico while northwesterly flow aloft funnels mid level disturbances over the region. This means at least a chance for showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday. Instability will be present for potential strong storms, but of course this far out sky cover and residual boundaries are very challenging. Will focus likely pops during the time frame when good agreement exists on a passing shortwave trough. At this juncture it appears that will be Monday night into Tuesday. A break in the active weather by week`s end as a transitory H5 anticyclone traverses the area. Of course, the trend has been to push this back a day every cycle as stubborn northwest flow won`t depart. H8 temps will be in the 10C-13C range, thus values well into the 70s and lower 80s are expected for forecast highs. Overnight lows won`t be much different than the past several days with mid 50s to lower 60s being the norm. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Moisture continues to increase overall across the region, manifested most obviously by the light rainfall mainly east of I-79 tonight. FKL/DUJ have already achieved MVFR ceilings, as well as LBE, and expect expansion of these restrictions to at least PIT and AGC tonight. Given its proximity to east-facing slopes, DUJ still has IFR potential overnight. Sustained east- to-southeast wind of around 10 knots will continue through the night, with some occasional gusts. After the morning rain subsides, flight conditions will improve as a strong inversion begins to mix out, with VFR at most terminals by early afternoon. An approaching trough is expected to help trigger another round of showers and thunderstorms, a few of which could produce strong wind gusts or hail. VCTS was included in all TAFs, as timing remains problematic. After sunset, precipitation will trend downward once again, and VFR ceilings should maintain. Wind will swing around towards the south and southwest with time today, remaining around 10 knots in general. OUTLOOK... Brief restrictions are expected most of next week as the weather pattern remains active. No long sustained periods of IFR are predicted.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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