Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 231640 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1240 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure provides dry weather through Friday. Seasonable temperatures today will give way to well above normal values by Friday. Another unsettled weather pattern may arrive during the holiday weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Remaining stratocu behind yesterday`s cold front continues to dissipate this afternoon as much drier air invades from the north. High pressure building in will ensure dry weather tonight. Dewpoints continue to fall around the area, with current readings in the mid 50s, about 10 degrees below those 24 hrs ago. This will make for a much more pleasant evening with cool temperatures and relatively low humidity. Tonight, cloudless sky and calming winds will allow for strong radiational cooling. Expecting some valley fog to develop, despite the lower dewpoints. Lows will be near or just above average values.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Dry weather will carry into the latter part of the week with high pressure crossing the region. Strong temperatures rises are expected Thursday under relatively cloudless sky. Dewpoints will remain in check Thursday with light northerly flow continuing. The upper ridge begins to deteriorate Friday as a weak shortwave tries to move into the lower Great Lakes. Near-surface moisture will begin to increase on the back side of the surface high circulation. The result may be an isolated shower/thunderstorm in the late afternoon, but mostly dry conditions are expected. Highs Friday will be similar to Thursday, in the mid 80s, but there will be a marked increase in humidity Friday.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As hinted in the previous section, the holiday weekend will feature a return of unsettled weather. Moisture will continue to pump northward behind the departing ridge on Saturday, leading to some scattered showers and thunderstorms. As a potential Gulf of Mexico tropical system rides north into the southeast states, a continued moisture feed around it may interact with Great Lakes/northeast U.S. troughing to provide shower and thunderstorm chances right on through Memorial Day and into Tuesday. Given the several rounds of precipitation expected, rainfall totals may have to be monitored for at least an isolated flooding potential. However, ensembles/GEFS QPF M-climate continue to point to a relatively unremarkable pattern overall, and thus a widespread flood threat is not yet foreseen. Temperatures will continue to run several degrees above normal, with tightening diurnal ranges due to the bouts of clouds and rain. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Cloud coverage will continue to diminish this afternoon under building high pressure. Potential for brief vis restrictions early in the morning. OUTLOOK... Restriction potential returns with weekend low pressure.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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