Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 222149 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 549 PM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Building high pressure should maintain mainly dry weather through Friday. Low pressure passing south of the region will bring a slight chance of showers to locations south of Interstate 70 on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Only minor tweaks to grids at this time, as clouds decrease from west to east. Previous discussion... The back edge of clouds associated with yesterday`s storm is currently moving across the region. Most locations should clear out tonight, although a shortwave will drop across northeastern counties and keep some cloud cover present. Felt that model guidance was too warm for tonight considering fresh snow cover and mostly clear skies should allow for radiational cooling, so went with a forecast that was a few degrees colder than last night`s temperatures. The previously mentioned shortwave should bring a slight chance of snow showers to locations north of US 422, with locations to the south of 422 remaining dry. Little change in high temperatures is expected between Thursday and Friday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The most recent model runs show the Saturday system tracking south of the area to be even farther south now, with only the 15Z SREF still showing a chance of precipitation in the forecast. In regards to this, have trended the forecast down with pops trimmed back farther to keep any mention of precip south of I 70, with chance pops still in the forecast for Tucker County. Any precip should be well south by sunrise on Sunday, with the rest of the day expected to be dry. Temperatures will remain well below normal. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Dry weather will continue with an upper ridge building locally. Influence of the next low pressure system will begin to be noticed by Tuesday with precipitation well in advance of the low itself. While it is likely that a cold front will move through sometime between Tuesday and Thursday, confidence on timing wasn`t high enough to include likely pops at any time in the forecast so far. A warming trend is expected through the extended forecast, with temperatures finally returning to normal by Tuesday and continuing to warm into the middle of the week. && .AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR expected through the period as cloud coverage gradually clears. Winds will remain out of the west northwest. OUTLOOK... MVFR restrictions are possible Friday with another crossing disturbance. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.