Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 231923 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 323 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure should maintain dry weather this afternoon. Slow- moving low pressure will return rain chances late tonight through mid- week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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No substantive changes are needed to the forecast at this time. Based on 12Z RAOB analysis, maxima should peak in the low-mid 70s in most areas under strong insolation. Previous discussion follows... Ridging aloft in advance of a cutoff upper low in the TN Valley will maintain dry weather this afternoon, though high clouds should increase on the nern side of the approaching low. The leading edge of a band of rain showers in diffluent H5 flow will move into the wrn zones in OH this afternoon, but will have considerable dry air to overcome. The chance for measurable precipitation will increase only slowly as a result. Continued sely flow and mixing should lead to temperature above seasonal levels this afternoon, and increasing low-level moisture and thickening clouds will suppress typical diurnal cooling, leading to above-seasonal overnight temperature.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Better rain chances are expected Tue with increasing deep- layer moisture and dynamic support as the closed upper low drifts newd, despite downsloping, shallow sely low-level flow. The sely wind is expected to become gusty on the lee side of the ridges, though model sounding progs indicate the strongest winds capped above an inversion with gusts of 20-30 kt expected. Although the closed low will decay into an open wave, new models suggest that the wave may not phase as effectively as previously thought with an approching nrn-stream wave. As a result, there may come a precipitation gap in wrn PA Tue night before greater coverage returns with the arrival of the nrn wave on Wed. By Wed afternoon, moisture will be shunted ewd, with any rain showers quickly shifting to the ridges and nrn lake-enhancement zones. Lowering inversion heights and eroding moisture should lead to a rapid decrease in precipitation.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The last in a series of shortwave troughs will impact the region on Fri as it drives a cold front across the Great Lakes. Increasing rain chances can be expected to end the work week, but the track of the wave may preclude a widespread wet day. Thereafter, an overall pattern shift appears to be in the offing, with a strong wrn-CONUS trough and amplifying ern-CONUS ridge. This pattern of rising heights and a strengthening upper ridge spells a general warming trend for the region, with dry wx and a return to seasonal temperature over the weekend.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected to continue through the afternoon and overnight hours of the TAF period, although clouds will begin to thicken and lower. Light rain will arrive mainly after 00Z as the initially dry low levels hinder the advance of precipitation northward. MVFR cig and vis may start to arrive toward sunrise. Wind gusts up to 20 knots are expected areawide this afternoon out of the southeast. OUTLOOK... MVFR/IFR conditions are likely Tuesday through Wednesday for all sites with slow moving low pressure.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ Kramar

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