Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 221718 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 118 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures will continue until rain chances return Monday night with approaching upper level low pressure. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Mostly sunny and dry this afternoon as high pressure remains in control. Based on this morning`s sounding and latest forecast soundings...daytime max temperatures should top out a couple degrees above average. There is a favorable setup for downsloping winds overnight but overall speeds will be the limiting factor. Have added stronger (but sub-advisory level) downsloping/easterly winds over the course of the night along ridgetops and west-facing slopes. Tonight will be mostly clear as a mid-level ridge axis crosses. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Monday will remain dry during the day but rain chances will begin later in the day as an upper low approaches the forecast area. Rain is likely for much of Tuesday as the low transitions over the Ohio valley before beginning to taper off early Wednesday morning as latest progs place the low east of the forecast area at that point. Rain amounts are forecast to range from just under a half inch across north of I-80...increasing to the south with 1-1.25 possible across southern zones. Temperatures will max out a few degrees above climatology Monday before the rain arrives. Cooler temperatures due to the clouds and rain are figured for Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A followup shortwave will kick a cold front across the region on Wednesday, keeping temperatures a shade below normal into Thursday. Cannot rule out a few snowflakes mixing in Wednesday night/Thursday morning behind the front, as 850 mb temperatures could drop below 0C once again. A dry interlude is possible Thursday afternoon/evening in brief surface ridging. Precipitation chances return Friday and Saturday as another shortwave arrives. Some model solutions close this off into an upper low over or near our region, while others are more progressive. In any case, below normal temperatures should continue. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Sfc high pressure should maintain VFR conditions through the TAF period. OUTLOOK... Periodic restrictions are likely Mon night through Wed with slow moving low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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