Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 211747 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 147 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will provide dry weather and a warming trend towards seasonable temperatures into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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High pressure will maintain dry conditions, however, cirrus spilling over a flattening Mississippi Valley ridge will limit sunshine the rest of the day. Although warmer...temperatures remain several degrees below climatological norms. Cloud coverage will keep radiational cooling somewhat in check overnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Building high pressure will continue dry conditions and the warming trend in temperatures Sunday and most of Monday until low pressure currently over the central states begins to impact the region. Clouds will be on the increase and chances of precipitation will increase over the course of the night.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Models generally agree in lifting the upper low into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday and degenerating it into an open wave as it crosses the Appalachians on Wednesday. Increasing moisture and isentropic lift will allow for rain through this period. PoPs/QPF are higher in the ridges than in areas to the west given the track of the shortwave. The models no longer phase this first wave with a followup northern stream disturbance, but there remains disagreement on the handling of the next couple of shortwaves rotating through yet another developing longwave trough. Kept some fairly general PoPs in the forecast through the week. Temperatures will generally remain near or several degrees below climatology. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... With high pressure in place, VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. OUTLOOK... Restriction potential returns with Tue/Wed low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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