Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 231151 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 751 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure should maintain dry weather today as it slides east. Slow moving low pressure will return rain chances tonight through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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With 7:45am update, made some minor tweaks to cloud cover through the initial part of the forecast, as well as some tweaks to hourly temperature trends. Ridging should maintain dry weather today, though high clouds should increase on the NE side of an approaching TN Valley low. SE flow and mixing should result in high temperatures above seasonal levels.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Ridging should shift E-NE this evening as vertically stacked low pressure slowly tracks across the TN Valley. An initial shortwave in srly flow ahead of the low should return rain chances this evening and tonight, though dry air in place should initially limit this potential. Better rain chances are expected late tonight and Tuesday with increasing deep layer moisture and shortwave support as the low drifts NE, despite a downsloping shallow serly low level flow. The SE wind is expected to become gusty on the lee side of the ridges, though model sounding progs indicate the strongest winds capped above an inversion with gusts of 20-30 kt expected. The upper low is expected to be absorbed by an upper trough as it crosses the Lower Great Lakes and OH Valley region on Wed, with rain chances continuing. Rain chances should diminish Wed night as the trough shifts E to New England. Temperatures are expected to be below seasonal levels. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Model ensembles and WPC progs indicate dry weather should return for late week under weak surface high pressure. Rain chances return as a trough advances out of the Midwest and crosses the region late Friday through part of Saturday. Dry weather should return through early next week as surface high pressure builds under a NE CONUS upper trough. Below average temperatures are expected to continue, with a return to near seasonal level early in the week with rising heights and upper ridging. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period, although clouds will begin to thicken and lower this afternoon and evening. Light rain will mainly arrive after 00Z as the initially dry low levels hinder the advance of precipitation northward. MVFR cig and vis may finally start to arrive towards sunrise. Wind gusts of up to 20 knots are expected areawide this afternoon out of the southeast. OUTLOOK... MVFR/IFR conditions are likely Tuesday through Wednesday for all sites with slow moving low pressure.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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