Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 201715 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 115 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Dry conditions and near normal temperatures expected today before rain chances return early in the week with crossing low pressure.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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High pressure will maintain dry conditions today and overnight outside of a possible stray shower over the ridges this afternoon. Surface dewpoints this afternoon in the low 60s to upper 50s hint at a favorable hydrolapse overnight for fog development as partial clearing with increasing subsidence into the evening along with lessening winds will allow decoupling and radiational cooling to a degree.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Sfc high pressure across Ontario and the Ern Great Lakes should maintain dry weather through most of tonight. Low pressure is expected to track across the Midwest late tonight through Monday, dragging the stalled sfc front back N as a warm front. Models trended slower with this scenario with a stronger sfc high to the N, so slowed the return of the shower/tstm POPs in the forecast. The sfc low is expected to track across the Upper OH Valley and Eastern Great Lakes region Tuesday, as the low`s associated cold front approaches and crosses the area. Maintained likely POPs for showers/tstms as this occurs. The potential for stronger storms will be dependent on how much destabilization and sfc heating takes place. The front should complete its passage Tuesday night with decreasing POPs. Above seasonal average temperatures are expected to continue. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Ridging should return dry weather to the forecast through the end of the work week as a trough slowly advances ewd from the Wrn CONUS. The trough is expected to approach the Upper OH Valley region by the weekend, with shower and tstm chances returning. Temperatures are expected to average above seasonal levels. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR will continue through the afternoon...but expect restrictions overnight as fog develops with light winds and a favorable hydrolapse. OUTLOOK... Brief restrictions are expected into the middle of next week as the weather pattern remains active. No sustained periods of IFR are predicted, although thunderstorms on Mon/Tue could lead to such restrictions.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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