Area Forecast Discussion
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338 FXUS61 KPBZ 241731 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 131 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will maintain dry weather and warming temperature through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure will ensure a dry forecast through the near term. Sun and building heights will bring temperatures back well above averages. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Dry weather continues into Friday, although the increasing moisture will bring humidity levels back up. With the ridge axis nearly overhead Friday afternoon/evening, it will be hard to generate the isolated showers that models consistently show. That said, a weak shortwave will try to erode the ridge Friday evening. Will keep slight chance PoPs in the forecast for late Friday evening creeping up to low chance during the overnight hours. By Saturday, the ridge is sufficiently broken down by a shortwave trough exiting the Midwest. The result will be scattered showers and thunderstorms increasing in coverage during peak heating in the afternoon/evening. Temperatures will continue to be well above average. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Warm and humid conditions will thus be accompanied by diurnally supported shower and thunderstorm chances into Sunday. Model consensus is of persistent weak troughing over the Ern CONUS early next week, with a cutoff southern stream low over the Sern states. A forecast of warm and humid conditions with diurnally supported convection was thus maintained. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR through the TAF period under high pressure. Isolated convection possible late Friday afternoon/evening. OUTLOOK... Restriction potential returns with a weekend low pressure trough.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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