Area Forecast Discussion
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475 FXUS61 KPBZ 250359 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1159 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Occasional rain will continue until passage of a late Wednesday cold front. Thursday will be dry, but another low will bring rain for Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Rain should continue to taper off overnight as a dry slot advances N across the area. Scattered showers are expected to develop Wednesday with the approach and passage of a cold front/mid level trough. A much reduced temperature range can be expected given the clouds with relatively warm overnight lows, but cool daytime highs.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure riding up the eastern seaboard will be departing Wednesday night. Precip will taper off from southwest to northeast. It may take until Thursday morning before QPF leaves Jefferson county PA . The column cools which could lead to wet snow mixing in closer to dawn north of I-80 Thursday morning. As of now, any accumulation will be on the grass, since there could be a decent rate which would allow snow to accumulate. High pressure pays a quick visit Thursday into Friday morning before the next in a series of troughs moves overhead. Differences on the track of low pressure and ability for northern and southern branches to phase leads to below average confidence for Friday. GEPS and GEFS keep surface cyclone east of the mountains, which still would spread measurable QPF to a good part of the area save for eastern Ohio. However there are some operational members that have trended toward systems not phasing thus bringing low pressure up the windward side of the Appalachians. This would still result in measurable rainfall, however it will be much more expansive and cover the entire forecast area. Either way, the system is moving at a decent clip, so no flooding is foreseen. Temperatures will be below normal the entire short term. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Highlights: - Below normal temps this weekend - Damp Saturday north of US 422 - Dry and warm next week Yet another full latitude trough develops over the eastern CONUS. This will funnel in below normal temperatures Saturday and Sunday as H8 temp plunge back below zero. The mid level energy will generate showers mainly north of US 422 on Saturday, however it would not be surprising to see pops get extended further south if the trough is stronger than presently forecast. No ptype issues at this juncture given precip onset time. In addition, the amount of warm air in the lowest few thousand feet should offset cold temps 5KFT and above. Once the trough departs late Sunday high pressure builds as do H5 heights. This will make temperatures jump early next week to above normal. With southwest winds at the surface and H8 temps progged around 12C, would not be surprised to see lower 80s across northern West Virginia next Tuesday. There are some timing questions regarding the next weather system at the very end of the forecast, however that can be hashed out with Wednesday`s shift as it becomes the new day 7. So if you are looking for spring weather, you will like the forecast as we head back to work next week. && .AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... General MVFr with lcl IFR will continue this eve in light rain as moisture is shunted across the nrn periphery of S.E. U.S low pres. The latest model model runs indicate an easing in rain and IFR restrictions overnight, but any break will fill in on Wednesday and a cold front approaches. Degraded conditions can then be expected until that front passes later on Wednesday evening. OUTLOOK... The next chance for general restrictions is expected with the crossing of weak low pressure on Friday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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