Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 171750 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 150 PM EDT Tue Apr 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure was located in southern Quebec and northern New England early this morning. It is forecast to lift slowly northeastward. Another area of low pressure was located in Wyoming and Colorado early this morning. The low is expected to progress eastward and it should pass through our region on Thursday morning. High pressure is anticipated to follow for the period from Friday through Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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No changes so far to the forecast for this afternoon except add in a little more snow showers/flurries in the forecast for portions of eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey as we are getting reports of some flurries at times. Otherwise, cool and breezy conditions will prevail with isolate/scattered showers moving into the area this afternoon as a short wave/vorticity impulse swings across the area around the large mid/upper low to our north. Winds will continue to gust 20 to 30 mph at times out of the west to northwest.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... Scattered showers quickly diminish in the evening with the passage of the shortwave and loss of heating. Also, as the center of the upper low pushes slightly to the north and east away from the area this will help lead to a general clearing trend across southern portions of the forecast area. Temps will be chilly...lows generally in the mid 30s from the I-95 corridor S/E with upper 20s to low 30s farther N/W...coldest across the southern Poconos. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... We should be under the influence of weak high pressure on Wednesday as an area of low pressure begins to work its way up the Ohio River Valley. We are anticipating dry weather conditions for Wednesday with highs mainly in the 50s and lower 60s in our region. The low is expected to move across Pennsylvania on Wednesday night before transferring off the New Jersey coast on Thursday morning. Rain should overspread much of our region on Wednesday night and it is forecast to linger into Thursday. Rainfall amounts are expected to be relatively light, generally up to one or two tenths of an inch. The low is forecast to strengthen as it moves northeastward on Thursday and Friday. Conditions are expected to become breezy at that time. High pressure is anticipated to build into our region from the northwest for the weekend. The air mass should bring slightly below normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...Mainly VFR with broken deck 4-5 kft. Some scattered showers will be around in the afternoon with the best chances for these affecting any TAF sites being at KRDG, KABE. Winds west 10-15 knots gusting 20-30 knots. Tuesday night...VFR with clouds diminishing south to north. Winds diminish to around 10 knots in the evening. Outlook... Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Wednesday night and Thursday...Conditions possibly lowering to MVFR and IFR in rain. Thursday night through Saturday...Mainly VFR.
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&& .MARINE... SCA remains in effect...west winds will ramp back up again heading into the day Tuesday as the pressure gradient strengthens with SCA conditions expected for all the waters. Seas will come down a bit from current wave heights but will remain elevated at 4 to 6 feet through Tuesday. For Tuesday night, SCA remains in effect through 10z Wednesday as gusts to near 25 knots continue through the night...especially over the ocean waters. Outlook... Wednesday morning...A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for our ocean waters off New Jersey for lingering westerly gusts to 25 knots. Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning...No marine headlines are anticipated. Thursday afternoon through Friday morning...West to northwest wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots are expected. Friday afternoon through Saturday...No marine headlines are anticipated. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for ANZ450>453. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ430-431- 454-455. && $$ Synopsis...Iovino Near Term...Fitzsimmons Short Term...Fitzsimmons/Robertson Long Term...Iovino Aviation...Fitzsimmons/Iovino Marine...Fitzsimmons/Iovino

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