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604
FXUS61 KPHI 311345
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
945 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure holds dominant influence over the region into Sunday,
then some unsettled conditions could return later Sunday and
continue into Monday. High pressure may then build back in
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 9:40AM...No changes to the forecast at this time. A
beautiful day is on tap for the region.

An upper ridge and surface high to the west, across the Ohio Valley,
will ensure another fair weather day across the region. A cool dry
air mass will remain with a light North wind, so temperatures will
top out near normal even with full sunshine today. A sea-breeze will
push onshore later this afternoon, so readings within a few miles of
the shore will be cooler. Highs for the most part will be low/mid
70s with some upper 60s across the southern Poconos.

Tonight, clear skies and light winds will be around, like Thursday
night, so seasonably cool temps expected with upper 40s/low 50s most
spots. Light winds. A little patchy fog across southern Delaware/NJ
possible by dawn.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure maintains control over the area through Saturday
bringing a day of mainly sunny skies with seasonably warm
temperatures and continuing low humidity levels helping make it feel
quite comfortable.  Winds will be light from the west to northwest
and this should allow a seabreeze to develop along the coast by the
afternoon.

The center of high pressure shifts south and east off the coast
Saturday night through Sunday as a weak disturbance approaches from
the west. This will bring increasing high cloudiness Saturday night
with clouds thickening up through Sunday. By late day Sunday there
could be some showers moving into portions of eastern PA and
Delmarva eventually getting into NJ. However the timing on this is
uncertain so POPs are generally around 30 percent or so. The clouds
will keep it a bit cooler compared to Saturday but dew points will
increase some so it will feel a little bit more humid. Generally
expect highs ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s.

Chances for showers continue Sunday night as the deamplifying upper
level disturbance moves through but overall this does not look to be
a very impactful weather maker. Some embedded thunder will be
possible over Delmarva but otherwise instability looks to be pretty
limited.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The long range forecast continues to be a bit tricky as it`s looking
like the area will be situated between a stalled upper level low
over the western Atlantic near the Canadian Maritimes and an
approaching upper level trough from the west. This approaching upper
level trough may take some time to reach the east coast, however,
due to a blocking pattern that develops due to the stalled upper
low. This could keep the area largely under the influence of
upper level ridging through the first half of next week. That
said, there will still be the potential for some pieces of upper
level energy from the trough to sneak under the ridge helping
trigger some showers and thunderstorms each day Monday through
Wednesday. Not expecting a washout though for any of these days
and generally speaking, POPs are only around 20 to 30 percent
during this time frame. Expect highs generally in the low to mid
80s with dew points generally 60 to 65 which will make it feel
a little bit humid but still not too bad.

Chances for showers and storms look to increase by the time we get
to next Thursday and the main upper level trough finally starts to
dig in over the area.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

.Today... VFR expected. Limited amounts of daytime Cu/Sc with high
pressure arriving. Northwest winds increasing to around 10 knots
this afternoon. A sea breeze may affect winds at KACY by 20Z/21Z.
High confid overall. KACY winds - medium confid.

.Tonight... VFR conditions expected with clear skies across the
terminals. Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots this evening will become
calm or less than 5 knots this evening. Patchy rural fog possible.
High confid.

Outlook...

Saturday through Saturday night...VFR.

Sunday...Sub-VFR cigs could develop for some sites by the afternoon
due to some showers/storms.

Monday...Mainly VFR, though some sub-VFR cigs could linger.

Tuesday...Sub-VFR cigs could develop for some sites by the afternoon
due to some showers/storms, especially for eastern PA TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure situated well west of the waters today will arrive
later tonight and remain into the weekend. Fair weather is expected
both today and tonight. Winds will be mostly from the North today
at 10 to 15 knots with a few gusts close to 20 knots. For Delaware
Bay winds will be more Northwest.  Northwest or West winds 5 to 10
knots are expected most areas tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday...No marine headlines anticipated.

Rip Currents...

For Friday, northwest winds 5 to 15 mph in the morning will
veer and become southeast 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Breaking waves will be 1 to 2 feet. With fairly light winds and
shorter period swells, there will continue to be a LOW risk for
the development of dangerous rip currents along the New Jersey
and Delaware beaches.

Saturday will be very similar to Friday. Northwest winds around
10 mph will become southeast later in the day. Breaking waves
will be 1 to 2 feet. This will once again result in a LOW risk
for the development of dangerous rip currents along the New
Jersey and Delaware beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and
piers. Utilize any guarded beaches if venturing out into the
water.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fitzsimmons/Wunderlin
NEAR TERM...OHara/Wunderlin
SHORT TERM...Fitzsimmons
LONG TERM...Fitzsimmons
AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/OHara
MARINE...Fitzsimmons/OHara