Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 200556 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 156 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will continue lifting northward through our region this evening. A cold front approaching from the northwest is forecast to arrive late on Sunday. The boundary is anticipated to stall to our south on Monday. Weak low pressure is expected to move from the eastern Great Lakes to New England on Tuesday and Tuesday night and it should pull another cold front through our region early on Wednesday. The front is forecast to stall to our south as weak high pressure influences our weather on Thursday and Friday. The boundary may return northward as a warm front next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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The warm front is continuing to lift northward across the area. South of the frontal boundary, the dense fog is lifting. For the areas where the dense fog has dissipated, we will cancel the Dense Fog Advisory, although there will remain areas of light fog and low clouds overnight. For areas north of the frontal boundary, especially across far eastern Pennsylvania and north- central New Jersey, there remains some patchy dense fog, so we have extended the Dense Fog Advisory there. These areas should have improving visbilities in the next couple of hours as the front continues lifting northward as well. Otherwise, cloudy conditions will continue across the area with areas of light fog, drizzle, and scattered showers through the remainder of the night.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... For Sunday, area will be firmly in the warm sector to start the day as low pressure moves northeast through Quebec. Don`t really expect any sun though as low levels will remain quite saturated in southerly flow and there will continue to be some showers, mist, and drizzle around. Heading into the late morning through the afternoon, the cold front will push south with time...reaching the I-95 corridor by mid afternoon and southern NJ across the Delmarva by evening. This front will be the focal point for more scattered showers and storms to develop...especially during the afternoon from the I-95 corridor S/E. Some good news is the the mid and upper levels will be drying out and the upper forcing will be shifting off to the east. This may tend to limit the coverage of showers and storms but nevertheless, PWATs will still be quite high (1.7+ inches) and with the saturated ground any showers/storms will be a concern for additional hydro issues...mainly of the urban and small stream variety. Temperatures will be much warmer as there will also be some sun developing by afternoon...highs will be mainly in the upper 70s to low 80s except cooler in the far north across the southern Poconos. Dew points will also be in the upper 60s ahead of the front so it will feel very humid until the front clears the area by tomorrow night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The long-term forecast period will begin with a mid level trough over eastern Canada and the northeastern states on Sunday night. The feature is expected to progress slowly eastward during the course of the week. A ridge is anticipated to build overhead from the west on Friday and Saturday. Conditions are expected to remain in flux during the first half of the work week. Dry air is forecast to push down from the north for Monday in the wake of a frontal boundary. However, the boundary and moisture should build back to the north on Monday night and Tuesday. We will keep the forecast rain-free for Sunday night and most of Monday, then we will indicate a chance of showers and an increasing potential for thunderstorms from Monday night into Tuesday. Weak low pressure is forecast to pass to our north on Tuesday night and it should pull a cold front through our area early on Wednesday. We will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday night in advance of the front. A more substantial shot of dry air is expected for the second half of the work week. We are not anticipating any precipitation from Wednesday through Friday as the frontal boundary stalls well to our south and as ridging begins to build overhead from the west. The forecast for Saturday could go either way at this point. We will not mention any precipitation at this time. However, with a southerly flow becoming established and with the mid level ridge axis moving to our east, we may eventually need to introduce a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures for the period from Sunday night through Saturday are expected to be typical for this time of the year with highs mainly in the 70s and lower 80s, and lows in the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...IFR/LIFR CIGs/VSBYs with areas of light fog, and dense fog remaining at TTN. Light/variable winds may become predominantly southerly late. Moderate confidence. Sunday...IFR CIGs may persist through much of the morning, though VSBYs are forecast to improve gradually to MVFR/VFR after 12Z. MVFR to VFR conditions are expected everywhere by mid afternoon (though exact timing is quite uncertain) as southwest winds increase to 10 to 15 kts with occasional gusts to 20 kts possible. Low confidence. OUTLOOK... Sunday night and Monday...Mainly VFR. Some late night and early morning visibility restrictions are possible. Monday night through Tuesday night...A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Conditions varying between VFR and MVFR. Brief periods of IFR may occur in precipitation. Wednesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Some late night and early morning visibility restrictions are possible.
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&& .MARINE... 730 pm update: Dense fog advisory issued for the coastal NJ zones, as webcams are indicating dense fog hovering just off the coast. With dew points increasing atop the cold ocean waters, do not expect this fog to dissipate through much of the morning tomorrow. Previous discussion... A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect. While winds continue to see a lull in many areas expect them to increase again by later this evening through tonight. Also, there will be some showers around tonight along with patchy fog, especially for the northern waters, and this may lead to reduced visibilities. For Sunday, SCA conditions continue over the ocean waters as SW winds gust up to 25 knots and seas will be around 5 ft. Conditions should be below SCA levels over the Delaware Bay. There will be some scattered showers around with the chance of thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. OUTLOOK... Sunday night...A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 10:00 PM Sunday for our ocean waters to allow wave heights to fall below 5 feet. West wind around 10 knots becoming north. Monday through Thursday...No marine headlines are anticipated. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for PAZ105-106. NJ...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for NJZ008>010-012-015. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ450>453. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ430-431.
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&& $$ Synopsis...Iovino Near Term...CMS/Fitzsimmons/Robertson Short Term...Fitzsimmons Long Term...Iovino Aviation...CMS/Iovino/Robertson Marine...CMS/Fitzsimmons/Iovino

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