-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
943
FXUS61 KPHI 120140
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
940 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure over the region will move offshore this
evening. Low pressure centered over Lake Huron early this
afternoon will move eastward through this evening into Sunday.
High pressure builds south of the Mid-Atlantic region Sunday
night into Monday. Another area of low pressure brings more
unsettled weather by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
For the rest of tonight, initial band of showers has mostly
dissipated, but more wait in the wings as the next low
approaches. The low will be accompanied by a cold front, but
the overall strength of the system will be weakening as it
nears. While initial band of showers has waned, still think
widespread rain showers will move across the region overnight,
especially north and west of the Delaware Valley where better
forcing will be present. Rainfall up to a quarter of an inch is
expected. Lows will be in the mid to upper 40s.

H5 trough with associated vorticity advection will be moving
over the region on Sunday. With additional lift provided by weak
warm air advection, Sunday looks to be a rather wet and cool
day. Maximum temperatures are expected in the upper 50s to lower
60s. Have added drizzle and mist/patchy fog to the forecast for
late tonight and Sunday given persistent southeasterly upslope
flow, cloud cover and moisture.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunday night will feature improving conditions and the surface
low continues to move away and the upper trough passes through.
It`s possible that skies may become partly cloudy late giving
aurora viewing possibilities. One possibility will bring patchy
fog to the area if conditions become clear overnight.

Monday/Monday night... High pressure arrives during the day and
a partly sunny day is expected. Temperatures will be close to
normal for early May with highs in the low/mid 70s and lows (For
Tue morning) in the low/mid 50s. Clouds will increase over the
area Monday night.

Tuesday... Another slow moving low pressure approaches the
region. Increasing clouds thru the morning with rains arriving
during the day. Most models seem to agree with the overall
scenario and we`ll continue with chance pops for the morning
then mostly likely pops for the afternoon. It`s possible that
the furthest east areas may escape rains until late afternoon.
Temperatures will remain seasonable with mostly low 70s for
highs and 50s for lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Rather unsettled much of the long term as low pressure slowly
deepens while moving up the Ohio Valley and then ambling across
the Middle Atlantic region. Likely/categorical pops beginning
Tue night and continuing Wednesday before scaling back Wed
night. After a period of lesser pops Thu into Friday morning,
more showers/rains overspread the region for next weekend. We`ll
have chance pops for Fri night and into Sat for now. There
enough differences between the operational models to have less
confidence with regards to next weekends fcst attm.

Normal high temperatures for our region this time of year are
in the low/mid 70s with upper 60s for the southern Poconos.
We`ll arrive close to these values much of the week with
readings perhaps a degree or two below normal Wed and above
normal for Thu/Fri. Lows will be in the 50s most days.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Tonight...VFR early, then ceilings will be dropping into the
1500 to 3000 ft range as rain showers move into the area after
06Z Lehigh Valley and Poconos, and after 09Z for the remainder
of the region. Visibility may drop to 3-5SM in
drizzle/mist/heavier showers late tonight. Southeast winds 5-10
kt.

Sunday...Ceilings high IFR to low MVFR and generally MVFR vsby
all locations with showers and drizzle/mist most of the day.
East to southeast winds around 10 knots. Some improvement
possible late.

Outlook...

Sunday Night...Conditions may improve to MVFR or even VFR
briefly in the evening but patchy fog thereafter may drop them
back to IFR.

Monday through Tuesday...No significant weather expected.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday night...Sub-VFR conditions
expected with occasional showers.

Thursday... VFR probable.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below SCA criteria through Sunday.
Southeast winds around 10-15 kt. Seas 3-4ft.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Monday...No marine headlines expected.
Fair.

Tuesday through Wednesday...SCA conditions possible (30-40%) as
wind gusts get near 25 kt. Seas will get near 5 feet on
Wednesday. Occasional showers.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal Flood Advisories were issued for tonight`s high tide
for coastal zones from Ocean County on south and for communities
along the Delaware Bay. Minor tidal flooding is expected with
some inundation of roadways possible. Elsewhere, spotty minor
flooding is expected within the tidal Delaware River, tidal
Raritan Bay, and along the NJ coast north of Ocean County.

Spotty minor flooding is also expected with tomorrow morning`s
high tide within the Chesapeake Bay. Some of the guidance
suggests an advisory may be needed, but have elected to hold off
for now. Stay tuned to the forecast for any further updates.

No further tidal flooding issues are expected beyond
tonight/tomorrow morning`s high tide.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 5 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ016.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ020>027.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 5 AM EDT Sunday for DEZ001.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for DEZ002>004.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Deal/Franklin
NEAR TERM...Desilva/Franklin/RCM
SHORT TERM...OHara
LONG TERM...OHara
AVIATION...Deal/Desilva/Franklin/OHara/RCM
MARINE...Deal/Desilva/Franklin/OHara/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...