512
FXUS65 KPSR 302036
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
136 PM MST Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures will continue for the foreseeable
future, although there will be some slightly cooler temperatures
through the middle of this week and this weekend. A couple bouts
of breezy to locally windy conditions through mid-week and this
weekend headline an otherwise quiet forecast into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Zonal flow encompasses the region this afternoon as latest
satellite shows clear skies across the Desert Southwest. Clear to
mostly clear skies will continue through the rest of the week, as
the most noteworthy weather feature will be a weak trough brushing
the region mid to late week. This trough will cool temperatures
slightly, with lower deserts more solidly in the low to mid-90s
for highs through the rest of the week.

Ensembles depict a more potent trough diving from the Gulf of
Alaska southward into the Pacific Northwest late this week, with
potential impacts of breezy to locally windy conditions developing
across the region at some point over the weekend. Ensemble
clusters currently have a decent amount of spread in how quickly
this closed low will dig and progress eastward across western
CONUS during this period, so timing and magnitude of impacts
remain uncertain for the weekend. Nonetheless, we should expect to
see a bump in winds progressing west to east as early as Saturday
and continuing into early next week. Further cooling temperatures
should result due to the negative height anomalies that are
expected to spread into the region during this period, with
current NBM highs back into the upper 80s to low 90s by early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1740Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Winds will be light and follow their typical diurnal tendencies.
Wind speeds this afternoon may reach up around 10 kt in the PHX
Metro and around 15 kt at KBLH. A light southerly crosswind
(160v200) at KPHX and KDVT will become southwesterly between
20-21Z. This southerly crosswind is expected at KPHX and KDVT
again tomorrow. Clear skies are expected through the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and dry conditions will persist this week and into this weekend
with high temperatures around 3-5 degrees above normal each day.
Winds will be light and follow typical upslope/downvalley patterns
Tuesday and Wednesday before increased breeziness arrives
Thursday with gusts reaching the 15-20 mph range across much of
the area. Windy conditions will also be possible across the
western districts on Thursday as a dry cold front passes through
the Colorado River Valley. Minimum relative humidity values will
range from 8-15% each day. Moisture recovery will range from poor
to fair each night, or around 25-50%.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Young
AVIATION...Berislavich
FIRE WEATHER...Young/95