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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS65 KPUB 240433
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1033 PM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions will return to the San Luis
  Valley Wednesday afternoon.

- Winds gusting to 55 mph and high fire danger expected for
  portions of the area on Thursday.

- Critical fire weather concerns continue into Friday for
  portions of our plains, with rain and snow chances expected
  elsewhere across the forecast area.

- Cooler and wetter weather likely for this weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 218 PM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Currently...The frontal passage early this morning ushered in some
moisture across the eastern plains as well as cooler air. Meanwhile,
increasing west-southwest flow has produced near-critical fire
weather conditions across the San Luis Valley, as well as isolated
shower activity and increasing mid-high level cloudiness over the
higher terrain. Temps across the forecast area have warmed into the
60s to around 70F as of 2 PM.

Tonight...Isolated shower activity will be possible this evening
across the eastern mts and adjacent plains until around 10 PM, with
a slightly better shot at some showers over Teller County and
Monument Hill. A relatively flat ridge of high pressure will
gradually slide across the state tonight, so any showers that do
develop should diminish by midnight, with clearing skies expected
overnight. Look for overnight lows in the 30s to around 40F for the
high valleys, and mid 30s to mid 40s for the plains.

Tomorrow...The upper ridge axis pushes east, as the next incoming
low pressure system approaches the CA coast. Increasing southwest
flow aloft will bring a warming and drying pattern to the state, and
the expected afternoon wind gusts are forecast to produce enhanced
fire danger once again for the San Luis Valley during the afternoon.
Across the plains, southerly surface winds will help boost temps as
well, but humidity levels should remain elevated enough to avoid any
fire weather concerns for the day. Plan on maximum temps in the
upper 60s to mid 70s for the high valleys, and upper 60s to upper
70s for the plains. Moore

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 218 PM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Wednesday Night and Thursday...

The main concern for Thursday will be fire weather. The ridge axis
passes overhead early Wednesday evening, turning our flow aloft more
and more southwesterly throughout Wednesday night. Models bring a
low/trough axis onshore over California by around 03Z Wednesday
evening, and into the Four Corners region by around 15Z Thursday
morning. This system is expected to bring strong southwesterly winds
and very dry conditions to our area for Thursday. Overnight humidity
recoveries will likely be very poor for many locations, especially
for our southern plains and eastern mountains, where we could start
out out Thursday with humidities around 30%. This will set the stage
for a very dangerous fire weather day on Thursday. As the trough
approaches, southwesterly winds gusting to 50 mph are expected
across much of the forecast area, especially south of highway 50.
Relative humidities are expected to fall into the low teens across
much of the area. Daytime highs are expected to soar into the mid to
upper 80s across a majority of the plains, with mid to upper 70s
over El Paso County and the Upper Arkansas River Valley, 60s for the
San Luis Valley, and 40s and 50s for higher terrain locations. A
Fire Weather Watch has been issued for portions of our southeast
plains, along with the San Luis Valley for Thursday. Most of the
forecast area will see critical meteorological fire weather
conditions on Thursday, but many zones are also already experiencing
greenup, and will therefore not be included in a Fire Weather Watch
for Thursday.

Apart from fire weather concerns for Thursday, we will also see
chances for rain and snow across the Continental Divide for Thursday
afternoon, along with showers developing over northern El Paso
County in the afternoon and evening hours. Another potential
forecast challenge for Thursday will be the high impact, low
confidence set up for severe thunderstorm chances on our far eastern
plains. SPC has far eastern Prowers and the eastern half of Kiowa
included in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday
afternoon. This risk is associated with a potential dryline setup,
which most models indicate will have pushed into Kansas fairly early
in the day. The NAM does show around 1000 J/Kg of CAPE sneaking back
into our far eastern plains early Thursday afternoon. If any storms
do manage to develop in our forecast area, hail and damaging winds
will be the main concerns.

Friday...

We are about 5 to 10 degrees cooler behind the departing low for our
Friday, with continued fire weather concerns on our southern plains,
mainly along the southern I-25 corridor and south of highway 50.
Daytime highs look to top out in the 70s for much of the plains, 60s
for mountain valleys, and 40s and 50s for higher terrain locations.
Gusty west winds continue across most of the forecast area as the
low continues to push off to our northeast. Snow chances will
continue over the Continental Divide, with rain and thunder chances
elsewhere across the forecast area.

Saturday Onwards..

Models bring another low in through the Four Corners region for
Saturday. There is still some disagreement about its exact timing
and track, but the overall trend is towards a cooler and wetter
pattern for our weekend, especially on Saturday. Highs look to stay
in the 60s for both Saturday and Sunday. Better chances for showers
exist on Saturday, though showers and weak storms will be possible
on Sunday as well. We trend back towards warm and dry weather for
Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1030 PM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3
taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Winds will be diurnal in nature,
but will be a bit stronger than normal, with winds getting a bit
gusty during the afternoon time period tomorrow.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ224.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for COZ224-232-233-237.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...HODANISH