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000
FXUS65 KPUB 131607
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1007 AM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued above normal temperatures and high fire danger
  expected for today.

- Critical fire weather conditions will continue to be a threat
  for portions of the area Sunday and Monday, and possibly again
  on Wednesday.

- Snow returns to the mountains Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 AM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

The latest mid-level analysis indicates that the area is in a
southwesterly flow well in advance of a closed low off the
California coast. Some weak mid-level vort energy is exiting
eastward of Colorado with a broad swath of dry mid-level air
encroaching Colorado from southern California and the Desert
Southwest. The latest relative humidity time-height cross section
indicates a deep layer of dry air aloft across southeastern
Colorado. At the surface, a 1019mb high is centered over the Arizona-
New Mexico border. Satellite imagery indicates mostly sunny skies
across the area with only a few passing high clouds.

This afternoon, the aforementioned dry southwesterly mid-level flow
will continue to encroach the region from the southwest with high
pressure southwest of the area. Thus, expect mostly sunny to sunny
skies with only a few high passing clouds today. Diurnal mixing will
allow for winds to increase today to 10-15 mph across most locations
with some gusts to 20-25 mph. It will be an unseasonably warm day
today for many locations. With relative humidity values dropping
into the teens and single digits,a Red Flag Warning remains in
effect for Pueblo/Huerfano/Las Animas counties and eastward
across our counties in the Plains of SE Colorado.

Highs this afternoon will be warmest closer to the ridge east
of the area, in the mid 80s across the Plains. Closer to the
I-25 corridor, temps will warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s.
The San Luis Valley will warm into the upper 60s with the higher
terrain warming into the 40s and 50s depending on elevation.
/04-Woodrum/


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 338 AM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Currently..

As of 2am, light to occasionally moderate snow showers are present
over the Continental Divide due to passing shortwave energy embedded
in the ridge. Wolf Creek Pass has had a few observations come in
with visibilities down near 1 mile, but area webcams are mostly only
showing light snow showers at higher elevations this morning, and
dry roads for lower elevations. Any remaining snow showers over our
highest peaks are expected to come to an end by sunrise. Satellite
imagery depicts southwesterly flow over our region, as we remain in
the western periphery of the ridge and our next low begins to move
southward along the California coast. Plains and mountains valleys
are mostly in the 40s for temperatures this morning with dewpoints
in the 20s. Overnight humidity recoveries will be poor in many
locations, especially for our southern plains, where we will likely
start out our Saturday with relative humidity values of only 30% or
so.

Today and Tonight..

High Fire Danger is very likely across the plains and the San Luis
Valley today...As the ridge flattens overhead and the low to our
west continues to drift south off the coast of California, westerly
flow increases across our forecast area. This will lead to another
day of above normal temperatures for our plains, though today will
be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. We will also be noticeably
breezier than yesterday as well, with westerly winds gusting to
around 30 mph across much of our plains. Daytime highs are expected
to top out in the mid 80s for the Lower Arkansas River Valley, with
mid to upper 70s elsewhere on our plains, and mid to upper 60s for
mountain valleys. These temperatures are around 10 to 15 degrees
above normal for this time of year. On top of the anomalous warmth
and breezy conditions, our plains will be very dry today, with
widespread relative humidity values falling into the single digits
by the late morning hours. With the expected hot, dry, and windy
conditions today, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect for 10 AM
through 8 PM for our plains, and for 2 PM through 8 PM for the San
Luis Valley. Please avoid activities that could start a fire today!

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 338 AM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Sunday...The incoming Pacific low pressure system is forecast to be
located over central CA Sunday morning, and will push across
southern NV to reach the UT and AZ border overnight into early
Monday morning. as the system approaches, increasing southerly flow
across the forecast area will produce another very warm day across
CO, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s for the high valleys,
and upper 70s to upper 80s for the plains. Though winds will be on
the increase, the higher gusts are still expected to be spotty so
critical fire weather conditions at this time are only expected to
occur across the San Luis Valley, Pueblo County and northern El Paso
County. Will maintain the watch at this time and will let the next
shift have one more look at data to fine tune.

Monday...Models are still in good agreement on sweeping the upper
low across the southern half of CO, moving from the UT/AZ border to
western KS in 24 hrs. This quick-moving system will be fairly
dynamic, bringing snow back to the mts starting early Monday morning
which will last into Tuesday morning. The central mts are expected
to be the focus of the highest new snow amounts, ranging from 6 to
up to 10 inches. The remaining higher terrain may see up to 2 inches
of new snow. Showers and some isolated thunderstorms will then
spread to the eastern plains during the afternoon and evening as the
system continues pushing east. In addition, strong west to southwest
winds are expected with this system through the day, and critical
fire weather conditions are anticipated across much of the area as
humidity drops into the single digits. Decided to hold off on any
new highlights for Monday at this time since existing highlights for
today and Sunday are already in place, but a watch for Monday will
likely be issued later today. Plan on highs in the 50s to around 60F
as the high valleys cool off, and 70s to mid 80s for the plains.

Tuesday...A cold front pushes south across the Palmer Divide early
Tuesday morning, providing some relief from the persistent fire
weather concerns the past few days. Brisk northerly winds are
forecast through the first half of the day, along with a good chance
for some showers, especially along and north of Highway 50. Humidity
levels will be high enough that even though winds will be gusty, the
fire weather threat can take the day off. Look for high temps in the
50s to around 60F for the high valleys, and 60s to around 70F for
the plains.

Wednesday...As the low pressure system continues east of the area,
another larger system will pass by to the north. Latest model
solutions suggest this system will stay far enough to the north to
bring some stronger westerly winds to the forecast area, but with
minimal precipitation chances. Another cold front is expected to
drop south across the plains late Wed night, but before that there
will be enough warming and brisk westerly winds to produce some
spotty fire weather conditions along the southern border. Temps will
warm into the 60s for the high valleys, and upper 60s to upper 70s
for the plains.

Thursday and Friday...The cold front passage late Wed will usher in
cooler temps for both days, along with isolated shower activity over
the mts and adjacent plains. Plan on highs both days in the mid 50s
to mid 60s for most locations. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 958 AM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals throughout the TAF
period as high pressure south of the area is accompanied by a deep
layer of dry air. This will allow for abundant sunshine for the TAF
sites. Winds this afternoon will be westerly to southwesterly at 10-
15kts with gusts to 20-25kts. Winds will decrease overnight to
around 5kts across the terminals. /04-Woodrum/

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this
evening for COZ224.
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
evening for COZ224-226-228.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ228>237.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOODRUM
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...WOODRUM