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105
FXUS65 KPUB 080951
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
351 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Near and below freezing temperatures are expected for El Paso
  County this morning.

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected over the San Luis
  Valley and portions of the southern plains today.

- A trend towards cooler, wetter weather begins tomorrow, and
  looks to persist through the weekend. This will include
  periods of moderate to occasionally heavy snowfall over
  portions of the high country.
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.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Issued at 342 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024

Currently..

The low continues to sit off to our north, sending cooler air and
the jet southward over our region. Satellite imagery shows continued
cloud cover over the high country, while observations show that
light snow showers are still ongoing over portions of Lake and
Chaffee counties. Temperatures are still in the 40s and even some
low 50s over southern El Paso County thanks to continued west winds
in excess of 30 mph as of 2am. If winds remain elevated, frost
chances will become more and more unlikely this morning for southern
El Paso. That said, northern El Paso County is already showing signs
of weakening winds and temperatures approaching freezing. Just on
the other side of the Palmer, Monument Hill hit 32 degrees at
1:35am. Less than 30 miles away at Fort Carson, the temperature is
30 degrees warmer this hour at 52 degrees.

Rest of Today and Tonight..

Expecting freezing and near freezing temperatures in El Paso County
to warm quickly this morning under mostly sunny skies and breezy
west-northwesterly winds that will prevail across our mountain
adjacent plains. Models bring a cold front through later this
afternoon and this evening, which will bring with it northerly
and eventually easterly winds. This setup has made for a very
tricky fire weather forecast, though it does look likely that
we`ll see at least a few hours of critical fire weather
conditions for the San Luis Valley, Otero, and western Las
Animas county before the northerly winds move in. This front
will also keep today`s temperatures cooler, with highs only
reaching into the 60s for most plains and mountain valley
locations. Apart from freezing temps early this morning and
critical fire weather later this morning, mostly dry and quiet
weather is expected for the remainder of today and into the
overnight hours. Overnight lows tonight and into tomorrow
morning will be a few degrees cooler than normal, but still
warmer than this morning.
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.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Issued at 342 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024

Thursday and Friday..

Models bring the upper low westward and into the Great Basin region
by Thursday. Behind the cold front, easterly winds and upslope will
eventually setup for Thursday across our mountain adjacent plains.
This will make for a much cooler and cloudier day for most
locations, though many of us will also see chances for rain and snow
as well, especially for the high country. Models bring the low
southward into northern Arizona by Thursday afternoon, which will
increase snow chances even more for our southern mountains. Models
have trended a bit higher with QPF amounts this morning and have
brought this low a bit further south as well. If this trend
continues, we could end up needing winter highlights over our
southern mountains for the Thursday into Friday timeframe.
Highest amounts look to be over the San Juans, Sangres, and
Wets, where 12 inches or so of new snow will be possible during
that timeframe. Elsewhere, rain, snow and weak thunderstorm
activity will be possible as well, especially over and near the
higher terrain for both Thursday and Friday. Daytime highs look
to be in the 60s for both days with mostly cloudy skies.

Saturday Onwards..

Forecast confidence decreases rapidly as we get into this weekend.
Models diverge on the trajectory of the low as it tries to push out
of the Great Basin. The GFS ejects the system quickly with drier
weather returning by Sunday with another system poised to drop in
from the northwest by Wednesday. Overall, NBM shows that temperatures
will remain mild through the weekend with a return to 80 degree
highs by Tuesday for the plains. Models show daily showers and
thunderstorms over the mountains through the remainder of the
extended.
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&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
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Issued at 342 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024

Aviation..

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24
hours. Winds at KCOS and KPUB will be gusty out of the northwest
this morning at KCOS and KPUB, with gusts to 25kt at KCOS and gusts
to 30kt at KPUB until 17Z. Winds at KALS will remain westerly today,
KCOS will turn northerly, and KPUB will turn east-northeasterly,
with speeds of 10-15 knots. Mid-level clouds will start to build in
across all three TAF sites near the end of this forecast period.
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&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this
evening for COZ224-232-233.
Freeze Warning until 8 AM MDT this morning for COZ084.
Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT this morning for COZ085.
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&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...EHR