Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 202100

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
300 PM MDT Tue Mar 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 259 PM MDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Upper ridge gradually building over the wrn U.S. today through Wed
with wly flow across CO. Still enough moisture and energy sneaking
through the ridge for some flurries over the higher peaks of the
Central Mountains this afternoon, and expect these to continue
on/off overnight and into Wed, though no accumulation expected. Also
seeing some gusty winds over the upper Arkansas Valley today, but
expect these to weaken overnight and continue to lessen on Wed as
ridge builds. Over the plains, winds Wed will increase ahead lee
trough deepening along I-25. though gusts should stay below critical
fire weather thresholds. Overall, expect max temps Wed to climb 5-
10f versus Tue readings, although increase in mid/upper level cloud
cover may hold readings back a few degf despite warming mid

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 PM MDT Tue Mar 20 2018

An upper level ridge will be over the area Wed night and into
Thu, but will them shift eastward Thu night as an upper level trof
moves thru the western U.S. Generally dry weather can be expected
acrs the area thru Thu, but Thu night as the upper trof moves closer
to the area, it will spread mstr into the Cont Dvd and snow can be
expected.  As an upper disturbance moves acrs the state Fri, snow
will continue over the Cont Dvd, and scattered showers will probably
spread acrs the high valleys and into some of the eastern mtns. Late
Fri afternoon and evening, a few showers could be found over
portions of the sern plains. Winds will pickup acrs southern CO on
Fri, and the fire danger will increase as humidities acrs the sern
plains fall to 15% or lower. At this time, it is too early to issue
a fire weather highlight for Fri, but chances are that most of the
sern plains will eventually need a fire wx highlight. Daytime temps
will be above average on Thu, and well above average on Fri.

Dry wx returns for Sat, but portions of the plains may again have
strong enough winds and low enough humidities for fire weather
concerns.  Temps will still be above average on Sat, but not quite
as warm as on Fri.  Sun another weather system moves into the Great
Basin, leading to another round of snow for the Cont Dvd and
increasing winds acrs all of southern CO.  There are some model
differences, with regards to the track of this system, but currently
the models are holding the upper low/trof over the Great Basin, but
a front is forecast to move south thru the area Mon and mstr looks
plentiful enough for widespread precip over the eastern mtns and

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 259 PM MDT Tue Mar 20 2018

VFR at all taf sites tonight and Wednesday. Winds at KPUB and KCOS
will turn weak E-SE this evening and overnight as high pressure
slips south through the plains, then become more S-SE during the day
Wed. Over the mountains, areas of gusty west winds will continue,
along with a brief -shsn possible from KMYP northward.




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