Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000 FXUS65 KPUB 250315 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 915 PM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - High impact storm system to bring strong winds and snow to the region, with the greatest impacts expected across the Palmer Dvd and the southeast mtns and southern I-25 Corridor - Any remaining heavier snow tapers off to snow showers Monday night, with cool weather and showers lingering over the mountains and I-25 corridor Tuesday - Warmer and drier weather returns mid-week, then increasing chances for mountain snow and plains wind return for next weekend && .UPDATE...
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Issued at 911 PM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Updated forecast grids and expanded Winter Weather Advisory across the plains to include Otero, Bent, Prowers and Baca counties. Only 1 to 3 inches of snowfall expected in those areas, but potential wind gusts up to 55 mph will create hazardous travel conditions due to blowing and drifting snow.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 244 PM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Increasing moisture and lift across the region as broad upper trough continues to translate into the Rockies, with induced surface low near LAA. SPC meso analysis has some modest cape and steep lapse rates in place across the eastern Plains, with regional radars indicating scattered showers and thunderstorms across the eastern mtns and plains attm. Latest models indicating increasing coverage of deformation band showers and thunderstorms across the eastern mtns and immediate adjacent plains through the late afternoon and early evening, as vertically stacked level low develops across the southeast plains. This vertically stacked low continues to translate south and east into western Oklahoma through tonight, with strong north to northeast surface to H7 of 30 to 50 kts developing across southeast Colorado. This will bring the heaviest snow and greatest impacts to the Pikes Peak region and areas along and north of the Palmer Dvd this evening and tonight, with the focus of heaviest snow shifting to the southeast mtns and southern I-25 Corridor later tonight and through the day on Monday. Big gradients of snowfall expected across Pikes Peak region with 4 to 9 inches across Teller County and northwestern portions of El Paso County, with a trace to 3 inches across the rest the region. Still expecting hazardous travel and blizzard conditions to prevail across the Palmer Dvd, with the strong gradient winds of 30 to 60 mph shutting down snowfall across southern portions of El Paso County into Pueblo County. With the strong north to northeast flow, we have upgraded to winter storm warnings for the southern I-25 corridor into eastern Las Animas county and for the Wet Mtn Valley, with 4 to 9 inches of snow possible, as well increased snow totals across the Wet and Sangre de Cristo Mtns, where 8 to 18 inches of snow will be possible. We have also issued winter weather advisories for the mid and upper Arkansas river valley, where deformation band snowfall will bring 2 to 6 inches of snow tonight. Will need to watch the evolution of this high impact system, with the 18Z NAM now indicating even stronger northeast upslope flow into the southeast mtns and southern I-25 Corridor, with the potential for more snow across this region into the San Luis Valley. System slowly continues to move south and east into Oklahoma, with snow winding across the southeast mtns through morning, though will see snow showers continuing across the higher terrain into the afternoon. Strong northerly gradient winds slowly diminish across the southeast plains through the late morning and afternoon. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 244 PM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Snow tapers off fairly quickly Monday evening as upper lift diminishes, and only some light accumulating snow will linger early in the evening over the srn Sangres before precip ends all areas around/shortly after sunset. Likely enough clearing overnight into Tuesday morning to allow low temps to really plummet, and most locations (even on the plains) will end up in the teens or colder by sunrise. Last piece of the upper trough rotates eastward across the srn Rockies Tuesday afternoon/evening, so expect a good deal of convective cloudiness to redevelop across the area by afternoon, with scattered snow showers over the high terrain and a mix of rain/snow showers over most valleys and along the I-25 corridor. Not expecting any heavy precip, though a few of the higher peaks could see an inch or two of snow under any heavier showers. Max temps will continue well below seasonal averages, with 30s/40s widespread. Upper ridge builds Wed/Thu over the Rockies, leading to drier/milder weather both days across srn CO. Upper trough then deepens along the West Coast Friday, potentially lingering offshore through the weekend before ejecting slowly eastward. This set-up will bring increasing swly flow to the region beginning Fri, with increased fire danger on the plains into the weekend, while mountains along the Continental Divide see a gradual ramp up of snow shower activity Sat/Sun as mid/upper level moisture increases. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 244 PM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024 KALS: Mixed wintry precip is currently falling at and around the terminal, which will persist for several more hours this afternoon. As we move into evening, things will transition completely to snow. Cigs and vis will lower into the low MVFR, high IFR range and remain as such through into tomorrow. Conditions will improve late tomorrow morning as precipitation in the area diminishes. KCOS: Showers and some thunderstorms are currently popping up around El Paso County, with the cold front expected to move in within the next few hours. Precipitation will spread into the vicinity of the terminal shortly, and north-northeast winds gusting 30 knots or more will be possible, increasing closer to 40 knots a bit later tonight. Rain and thunder will turn to snow a but after sunset as temperatures decrease, and IFR conditions will persist through most of the night along with gusty winds. Conditions will slowly start to improve late tonight into tomorrow morning. KPUB: Gusty northeast winds will continue through the rest of the afternoon as showers and thunderstorms continue to form in the area, sending some erratic outflow towards the terminal. A but later this evening, the cold front will make its way through and strong north flow will pick up, lasting through the night with gusts of 35-40 knots expected. Snow will set in later tonight across the area, dropping conditions into IFR for several hours. Conditions will improve into MVFR late tonight into tomorrow morning. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Monday for COZ058>064- 066-076-077. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT Monday for COZ067-068. Winter Storm Warning until midnight MDT Monday night for COZ072>075-079-080. Winter Storm Warning until noon MDT Monday for COZ078-087-088- 094. Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM MDT Monday for COZ081-082. Blizzard Warning until 9 AM MDT Monday for COZ084. High Wind Warning until 6 AM MDT Monday for COZ085-086-089-095- 096. Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Monday for COZ093- 097>099.
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&& $$ UPDATE...MOORE SHORT TERM...WANKOWSKI LONG TERM...PETERSEN AVIATION...WANKOWSKI

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