Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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000
FXUS65 KPUB 250315
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
915 PM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High impact storm system to bring strong winds and snow to the
region, with the greatest impacts expected across the Palmer Dvd
and the southeast mtns and southern I-25 Corridor
- Any remaining heavier snow tapers off to snow showers Monday
night, with cool weather and showers lingering over the
mountains and I-25 corridor Tuesday
- Warmer and drier weather returns mid-week, then increasing
chances for mountain snow and plains wind return for next
weekend
&&
.UPDATE...
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Issued at 911 PM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024
Updated forecast grids and expanded Winter Weather Advisory
across the plains to include Otero, Bent, Prowers and Baca
counties. Only 1 to 3 inches of snowfall expected in those
areas, but potential wind gusts up to 55 mph will create
hazardous travel conditions due to blowing and drifting snow.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 244 PM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024
Increasing moisture and lift across the region as broad upper
trough continues to translate into the Rockies, with induced
surface low near LAA. SPC meso analysis has some modest cape and
steep lapse rates in place across the eastern Plains, with regional
radars indicating scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
eastern mtns and plains attm.
Latest models indicating increasing coverage of deformation band
showers and thunderstorms across the eastern mtns and immediate
adjacent plains through the late afternoon and early evening,
as vertically stacked level low develops across the southeast
plains. This vertically stacked low continues to translate south
and east into western Oklahoma through tonight, with strong north
to northeast surface to H7 of 30 to 50 kts developing across
southeast Colorado. This will bring the heaviest snow and greatest
impacts to the Pikes Peak region and areas along and north of the
Palmer Dvd this evening and tonight, with the focus of heaviest
snow shifting to the southeast mtns and southern I-25 Corridor later
tonight and through the day on Monday. Big gradients of snowfall
expected across Pikes Peak region with 4 to 9 inches across Teller
County and northwestern portions of El Paso County, with a trace
to 3 inches across the rest the region. Still expecting hazardous
travel and blizzard conditions to prevail across the Palmer Dvd,
with the strong gradient winds of 30 to 60 mph shutting down
snowfall across southern portions of El Paso County into Pueblo
County. With the strong north to northeast flow, we have upgraded
to winter storm warnings for the southern I-25 corridor into
eastern Las Animas county and for the Wet Mtn Valley, with 4 to
9 inches of snow possible, as well increased snow totals across
the Wet and Sangre de Cristo Mtns, where 8 to 18 inches of snow
will be possible. We have also issued winter weather advisories
for the mid and upper Arkansas river valley, where deformation
band snowfall will bring 2 to 6 inches of snow tonight. Will need
to watch the evolution of this high impact system, with the 18Z NAM
now indicating even stronger northeast upslope flow into the southeast
mtns and southern I-25 Corridor, with the potential for more snow
across this region into the San Luis Valley.
System slowly continues to move south and east into Oklahoma, with
snow winding across the southeast mtns through morning, though
will see snow showers continuing across the higher terrain into
the afternoon. Strong northerly gradient winds slowly diminish across
the southeast plains through the late morning and afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 244 PM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024
Snow tapers off fairly quickly Monday evening as upper lift
diminishes, and only some light accumulating snow will linger
early in the evening over the srn Sangres before precip ends all
areas around/shortly after sunset. Likely enough clearing overnight
into Tuesday morning to allow low temps to really plummet, and most
locations (even on the plains) will end up in the teens or colder
by sunrise. Last piece of the upper trough rotates eastward across
the srn Rockies Tuesday afternoon/evening, so expect a good deal of
convective cloudiness to redevelop across the area by afternoon,
with scattered snow showers over the high terrain and a mix of
rain/snow showers over most valleys and along the I-25 corridor. Not
expecting any heavy precip, though a few of the higher peaks could
see an inch or two of snow under any heavier showers. Max temps will
continue well below seasonal averages, with 30s/40s widespread.
Upper ridge builds Wed/Thu over the Rockies, leading to drier/milder
weather both days across srn CO. Upper trough then deepens along the
West Coast Friday, potentially lingering offshore through the
weekend before ejecting slowly eastward. This set-up will bring
increasing swly flow to the region beginning Fri, with increased
fire danger on the plains into the weekend, while mountains along
the Continental Divide see a gradual ramp up of snow shower activity
Sat/Sun as mid/upper level moisture increases.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 244 PM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024
KALS: Mixed wintry precip is currently falling at and around the
terminal, which will persist for several more hours this afternoon.
As we move into evening, things will transition completely to snow.
Cigs and vis will lower into the low MVFR, high IFR range and remain
as such through into tomorrow. Conditions will improve late tomorrow
morning as precipitation in the area diminishes.
KCOS: Showers and some thunderstorms are currently popping up around
El Paso County, with the cold front expected to move in within the
next few hours. Precipitation will spread into the vicinity of the
terminal shortly, and north-northeast winds gusting 30 knots or more
will be possible, increasing closer to 40 knots a bit later tonight.
Rain and thunder will turn to snow a but after sunset as
temperatures decrease, and IFR conditions will persist through most
of the night along with gusty winds. Conditions will slowly start to
improve late tonight into tomorrow morning.
KPUB: Gusty northeast winds will continue through the rest of the
afternoon as showers and thunderstorms continue to form in the area,
sending some erratic outflow towards the terminal. A but later this
evening, the cold front will make its way through and strong north
flow will pick up, lasting through the night with gusts of 35-40
knots expected. Snow will set in later tonight across the area,
dropping conditions into IFR for several hours. Conditions will
improve into MVFR late tonight into tomorrow morning.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Monday for COZ058>064-
066-076-077.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT Monday for COZ067-068.
Winter Storm Warning until midnight MDT Monday night for
COZ072>075-079-080.
Winter Storm Warning until noon MDT Monday for COZ078-087-088-
094.
Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM MDT Monday for COZ081-082.
Blizzard Warning until 9 AM MDT Monday for COZ084.
High Wind Warning until 6 AM MDT Monday for COZ085-086-089-095-
096.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Monday for COZ093-
097>099.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...WANKOWSKI
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...WANKOWSKI