Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 210557
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1157 PM MDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 PM MDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Intense convective snow showers have developed over eastern
Fremont, northwest Pueblo, El Paso and Teller counties. Web cams
and social media video has been showing a mix of rain/snow and
ice pellets with the more intense showers with road surfaces
quickly becoming slushy and snow packed. The heavy wet spring
snows are always a challenge to forecast as quick accumulations
can occur even with temperatures right around or slightly above
freezing. Have updated to lower snow levels and temps, and
increase snow amounts into the 2-3" range. Some melting will occur
as snow lightens up, so am hesitant to go out with any short fused
advisories at this point, but that may become necessary if
intensities maintain.  -KT

UPDATE Issued at 714 PM MDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Storm is weakening as it moves across the state, and snowfall
amounts have been lighter than originally anticipated, so decided
to downgrade all of the Winter Storm Warning areas to a Winter
Weather Advisory. End times for the highlights remain the same.
Moore

UPDATE Issued at 602 PM MDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Update for expiration of the winter weather advisory for the
Southern Sangres. Incorporated latest obs data, and added areas of
fog across the eastern plains tonight through early tomorrow
morning. Moore

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 259 PM MDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Currently...

At 2 pm, scattered showers with embedded thunder was noted over a
good part of the region. Most of the precip was over the central
mtns, Pikes peak region, the s mtns and the far eastern plains.
Temps across the plains varied considerably, with 60s in the Pueblo
area while temps were in the 40s most of the rest of the plains.
Over the valleys temps were in the 30s and 20s in the mtns. A brisk
se sfc wind was occurring over most of the plains with lighter winds
over the higher elevations.

The main mid level circulation was over SW colorado, vicinity
Montrose. The surface circulation was just south of Pueblo.

Rest of today and into tonight...

Best chance of precip in the short term (rest of this afternoon) will
be over the far eastern plains, Pikes Peak region and central mtn
areas. With flow now from a westerly component over the s mtns, San
Luis Valley and sw mtns, these areas will see the least amount of
precip. For this reason have cancelled the winter wx hilites these
regions.

For tonight, the 500 mb circulation will move generally east. Flow
will come around to a northerly component later this evening and
this will favor the Palmer Divide region/Pike`s peak and the central
mtns for precip this evening and into tonight. Areas typically south
of this region will see little if any precip. Winter weather hilites
for these regions will continue, with several additional inches of
snow for the c mtns and Pike Peak expected. N El Paso should see 1-
2" of snow, mainly on grassy areas. COS proper should see a trace to
1" on grassy surfaces.

Min temps tonight should reach into the 20s and lower 30s over the
divides while lower ark rvr valley will be in the 30s. Mtns and
valleys should be in the teens and 20s.

Tomorrow...

Closed circulation should be over the CO/KS border, general vcnty of
Goodland KS. Precip will be favored over the  central mtns/Pikes
Peak/N El Paso county in the morning. Some wrap around precip may
work its way south down the far eastern plains tomorrow afternoon as
circulation wobbles over the KS/CO/NE region tomorrow afternoon.
Breezy north to northeast winds are expected over the plains
tomorrow with max temps reaching into the U40s to M50s across the
lower elevations. 50s should be felt in the valleys with 30s and 40s
in the mtns. Quite a bit of clouds will linger tomorrow. /Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 259 PM MDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Saturday night through Monday...The upper low will be located just
east of Colorado Sat night, with just some light showers tapering
off through the evening hours.  A transitional ridge moves in for
Sun into Mon, providing for warmer temps as well as some drying at
least through the first half of Sun. Isolated snow showers will
return to the higher terrain Sun night into Mon, then as the next
upper disturbance approaches pcpn will spread across the mts to the
adjacent plains Mon aftn and eve. Sfc winds will become southerly
and increase for Mon, helping to boost temps. Expect high temps in
the 60s for Sun, then 60s for the high valleys and mid 60s to mid
70s for the plains on Mon.

Tuesday...The upper shortwave crosses the Rockies late Mon night
through Tue, pushing a cold front south across eastern CO after
midnight Mon night. This will cool max temps on Tue across the
plains by about 10 to 15 degrees from the previous day. Some showers
are expected across the forecast area, but will mainly affect the
higher terrain and eastern slopes of the southern Front Range. Look
for highs in the 60s for the high valleys, then cooler across the
plains with highs in the mid 40s and 50s.

Wednesday through Friday...Unsettled northwest flow aloft settles in
across the state for the rest of the work week, keeping the threat
of isolated showers for the mts and at times for the plains. Pcpn
for the plains will be very hit and miss though, and confidence is
low. Temps are forecast to gradually warm through the week however,
with highs in the 60s most areas on Wed, then 60s for the high
valleys and 60s to lower 70s for the plains both Thu and Fri. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1157 PM MDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Upper low across El Paso County will slowly lift east north east into
early Saturday morning, and then continue into west central Kansas
through the day Saturday. LIFR conditions with deformation band
snow at COS will diminish and end through early Saturday morning,
with northerly winds developing on the back side of the low. VFR
conditions expected through the late morning with showers over the
higher terrain possible Saturday afternoon. MVFR conditions
possible Saturday evening at COS, with light upslope flow
developing.

MVFR and IFR conditions expected at PUB and ALS, as wraparound
showers develop and move across the terminals overnight. VFR
conditions develop aft 14z with northerly winds developing at
PUB. Could see VCSH across the higher terrain Saturday afternoon,
with mainly VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Saturday for COZ072-073-
076-080>082.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday for COZ058-060-
066.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MW



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