Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 281005
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
405 AM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Relatively quiet and warm weather conditions expected today,
though with near to spotty critical fire weather conditions across
the plains.

- Mountain snow increases overnight Thursday, with dry conditions
elsewhere.

- Increasing fire weather conditions Friday into the weekend.

- Chances for snow continue into next week across the mountains.

- A new system moves in early next week, bringing cooler, wet
conditions to the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 404 AM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Today: A relatively quiet Thursday is expected for south central and
southeastern Colorado. A ridge of high pressure will be pushing
eastward, keeping increased subsidence over the region. With the
ridge in place, dry conditions are anticipated for the day, though
an isolated snow shower can`t be ruled out along the central
mountains where orographic forcing will slowly increase throughout
the day. In addition to that, near to spotty critical fire weather
conditions are expected across the plains today, as dry air pushes
across the region and winds increase some during the afternoon.
Looking at temperatures, a warm day is in store for much of south
central and southeastern as clear skies prevail and downsloping
southwesterly winds overspread the area. Given all of that, the
plains will warm into the 60s to low 70s, the valleys rising into
the 50s, and the mountains reaching into the mid 20s to 30s.

Tonight: Heading into the overnight hours for Thursday, relatively
quiet weather continues, though with some more mountain snow. The
ridge of high pressure in place during the day Thursday will
continue its trek eastward, with a shortwave following behind it.
While the main core of this wave will stay to the north, enough of
it will pass over the region to bring some modest increases in
forcing. With the uptick in forcing, snow showers will rise in
coverage across the mountains, especially the central mountains,
where forcing will be greatest. Elsewhere across the area though,
dry conditions are anticipated given the strongest forcing/support
will remain further north. As for temperatures, a cool night is
expected. Mostly clear skies will allow for better radiational
cooling, though downsloping westerly winds will bring some warming.
With all of that said, the plains will sink into the 30s, the
valleys cooling into the 20s, and the mountains dropping into the
10s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 404 AM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Friday...

West-southwest flow aloft will increase on Friday as the jet passes
over our forecast area. As a result, strong winds will be mixing
down to the surface while downsloping westerly flow dries and warms
most of the plains. As a result, spotty critical fire weather
conditions will be possible during the afternoon hours, most
prevalent over our far southeast counties. However, consistent wind
gusts have been lacking in recent model data, especially over Baca
County. With critical conditions remaining somewhat short-lived,
have not upgraded the Fire Weather Watch with this package.
Temperatures across the plains will be several degrees above normal,
with afternoon highs in the 60s to low-70s. The high valleys will
remain in the 50s.

Saturday-Sunday...

Flow aloft will increase more as we move into the weekend as the
area continues to dry out at the surface. Stronger southwest winds
will result in more consistent critical fire weather conditions on
Saturday for the southeast plains. Humidity will also be a bit lower
along with daytime highs thanks to the generally dry airmass. As an
upper-level trough approaches from the west, winds will further
increase across the entire area on Sunday, and given the persistent
warm and dry conditions Sunday is looking to be our most widespread
fire weather day. Temperatures will also increase a few degrees over
the plains, with some places seeing high temperatures around 80.

Meanwhile, snow will increase over parts of the Continental Divide
Friday and Saturday, and start to spread east to the rest of the
higher terrain as our next system approaches. By Sunday,
precipitation will spread to all of our mountains and valleys, as
well as the Pikes Peak Region/Palmer Divide. The higher elevations
will see snowfall while the lower elevations will only see rain
thanks to warmer temperatures.

Monday Onwards...

Current long-term model guidance still shows a lot of variability
between solutions for next week`s system. In general, consensus
shows a broad upper trough moving in from the west coast, but that`s
where the similarities largely end. The GFS sends a closed low into
Colorado, while current runs of the EC and Canadian have a more
broad, open wave. Differences in speed and amplitude of the
approaching wave will have a large impact on how much precipitation
we get across the area. The mountains are almost guaranteed to see
some more snow, while the plains vary in precip amounts that will
most likely fall entirely as rain. Additionally, the incoming trough
will bring a cold front with it, which the NBM has dropping Monday`s
highs by about 20 degrees out east. However, despite how messy this
system looks between models, the general consensus has it moving
fairly quickly, with temperatures expected to return to near-normal
by midweek at the latest.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 404 AM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24
hours. Winds will remain relatively light this morning and later
tonight, with southwesterly sustained winds and gust increasing this
afternoon, especially for KALS. Otherwise, dry conditions are
expected today, with increasing mid to high level clouds during
the afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
for COZ233-237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...SIMCOE


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