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508
FXUS65 KPUB 090542
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1142 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and wetter weather appearing likely Thursday into the
weekend.

- Accumulating snow across the higher terrain is also appearing
likely, with the highest snowfall amounts and impacts expected
across the peaks.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 648 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024

Red Flag Warning has been allowed to expire this evening as
winds start to ease and humidity levels gradually improve.
Incorporated latest obs and satellite data, as well as hi-res
HRRR and RUC guidance. Moore
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 327 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024

Overall, relatively quiet across southern this afternoon with partly
cloudy to mostly sunny conditions in place for most areas. West
northwest flow situated across the central mountains is assisting
with some expansive cloud cover this afternoon, though lacking
deeper moisture has limited any snow development. This will continue
to be the case for the remainder of the afternoon into the evening,
especially as the upper trough sags to the south and flow becomes
more baggy. Surface trough situated across southeast plains is
supporting some spotty stronger winds/gusts this afternoon and along
with some lower RH values, am still seeing at least spotty critical
fire weather conditions. Given these conditions in place and the
higher likelihood for them to continue over the next couple of
hours, have opted to leave the Red Flag Warning in effect.

As the upper trough sags south later this evening into tonight, will
see a cold front move south through much of the Colorado. Initially,
no real impacts look to occur. However, increases in moisture along
veering flow will support a return to moist/upslope flow and
increases in isentropic ascent will support expanding cloud cover
and increases in precip. Precip chances will really increase
Thursday morning into the afternoon time frame and initially for
areas over and near the mountains. During the day on Thursday, snow
will be likely across the mountains and with rain expected over the
lower elevations. Amounts and impacts from the snow across the
mountains do look to be low through Thursday afternoon, and have not
issued any winter headlines at this time. With some weak instability
expected to be in place, can`t rule out some rumbles of thunder over
the higher terrain. By late in the period, will begin to see the
precip really blossom, as the upper trough/low continues to draw
near. In this cloud cover and precip, temps are expected to be well
below average on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 327 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024

Recent trends with guidance today is suggesting that portions of
south central Colorado, especially over and near the higher terrain,
could see a period of steady light to at time moderate precip from
Thursday night into Friday. With the upper low to the west, will see
deep southerly flow situated across southern Colorado. Increases in
large scale ascent, deep moist/upslope flow, and continued
isentropic ascent look to really focus precip development into our
area during this time. Have increased pops, qpf, and snow to account
for these trends. Rainfall rates don`t look to be overly concerning
at this time given lower instability, even with any thunderstorm
development. Most locations across south central Colorado will
likely see this rain result in amounts of one half inch to around an
inch. For the higher terrain, highest snowfall amounts look to be
primarily for the higher peaks of the mountains and with this
expectation, think impacts will be low. That being said, am getting
a little concerned that snow levels could lower more than currently
forecast and if so, amounts and impacts could be higher. This will
definitely need to be monitored, along with the need for winter
headlines.

Should see a trend for additional precip development to focus more
across the higher terrain, especially the Continental Divide, later
Friday into Friday night. This will be in response to this upper low
moving more to the south. For the remainder of the weekend into
early next week, should see this upper low slowly shift to the east
with precip chances likely returning. Coverage of precip looks to be
lower, and once again, likely focused over the higher terrain. The
risk of any strong to severe storms does look to be low at this
time, however, increases in moisture and instability could support a
higher risk on Saturday, especially as this system moves through. A
trend towards more normal temps is expected into early next week,
along with periodic precip chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
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Issued at 1140 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024

For KCOS..Northerly winds persist through the overnight hours,
becoming easterly by around 16Z later this morning. Easterly winds
will eventually help to enhance upslope conditions, leading to
lowered ceilings and rain showers later in the day. Most likely time
for precipitation will be from 20Z to 04Z this afternoon and this
evening, with MVFR and possible periods of IFR ceilings likely
during this timeframe as well. Northerly winds return after 04Z,
which could help to end precipitation and raise ceilings towards the
end of this TAF period for a time.

For KPUB..Northerly winds begin to turn easterly throughout the
early morning hours, with a gradual reduction in ceiling heights
throughout the day today. Expect MVFR ceilings by around 21Z this
afternoon, with vicinity showers by around that timeframe as well.
Showers on station and IFR ceilings will be likely by 01Z this
evening.

For KALS..Easterly and southeasterly winds are expected today, with
a gradual reduction in ceiling heights throughout the day today.
Expect MVFR ceilings by around 21Z this afternoon, with vicinity
showers by around that timeframe as well. Showers on station and IFR
ceilings will be likely by 02Z this evening.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...EHR/RODRIGUEZ
AVIATION...EHR