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103
FXUS65 KPUB 292059
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
259 PM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Temperatures will warm to around 10 degrees above normal on
  Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Critical fire weather conditions for portions of the area Tuesday
  and Wednesday.

- Quick-hitting system will bring brief period of cooler air
  and some precipitation Wednesday evening through Thursday.
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&&

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 212 PM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Tonight, there is GFS/NAM/ECMWF agreement that a trough axis will
slide eastward from the Pacific NW into Montana and Wyoming. The
best vort energy (forcing) and moisture will pass north of the area
overnight into Tuesday. This feature will help push a weak cold
front southeastward into northwestern Colorado, nearing the San
Juans and central mountains by dawn on Tuesday. With the passage of
the front and trough it might be enough to squeak an isolated snow
shower across the central mountains in Lake County, but anticipate
the area will remain mostly dry otherwise with clear skies tonight
into Tuesday night. During the day on Tuesday, winds at 15-20 mph
with gusts to 20-25 mph along with minimum RH values in the lower
teens will allow for potential fire weather conditions in the San
Luis Valley. With this in mind, a Red Flag Warning is in effect
from the early afternoon hours into the evening on Tuesday.

For temperatures, the forecast is closest to the National Blend of
Models (NBM). Lows tonight and Tuesday night will range from the 40s
for the I-25 corridor into the SE Plains to the lower 30s in the San
Luis Valley to the mid 20s in higher terrain. Given the weak nature
of the front, abundant sunshine will allow for temps to recover
nicely again on Tuesday with highs ranging from the lower to mid 80s
in the SE Plains to the mid to upper 70s along the Front Range to
the lower 70s in the San Luis Valley to to the 40s to 50s in higher
terrain. /04-Woodrum/

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Issued at 212 PM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Wednesday into Thursday, there is GFS/ECWMF/Canadian model agreement
that the next upper level trough will approach from the northwest on
Wednesday and mostly pass north of the area on Thursday. This system
will dive a little further south and bring a better chance for
showers and possibly even thunderstorms to the area. Still, the
best forcing with this system will be north of the area, and
only anticipate 0.10-0.25" of QPF at most with this system
across the area. Snow showers will return to the higher
elevations of the central Mountains by Wednesday evening with
the chance (25-35% probability) of showers mixing in and
possibly thunderstorms (10-20% probability) entering the
forecast late Wednesday evening for Teller County and the Palmer
Divide. The better chance (30-40% probability) for snow showers
for higher terrain and for showers for the I-25 corridor will
be on Thursday when the trough axis passes through the area.
Before moisture reaches the area, fire weather will be possible
in the San Luis Valley and SE Plains, where a Fire Weather Watch
is in place Wednesday afternoon into the evening.

For Friday into the weekend, GFS/ECMWF ensembles are in agreement
that the forecast will be mostly dry across the area. A weak
mid-level short wave will pass mostly north of the area and
developer further into the central Plains on Friday into
Saturday. Meanwhile, a westerly to southwesterly dry mid-level
flow and high pressure should keep SE Colorado mostly dry
through this period.

For temperatures, ahead of the trough with an enhanced southerly
flow, Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week with highs
ranging from the lower to mid 80s for the SE Plains to the mid to
upper 70s along the Front Range to the lower 70s in the San Luis
Valley to the 40s and 50s in higher terrain. Temps will cool 15-20
degrees on Thursday wigh highs around 5-10 degrees below normal.
After that, temperatures will progressively warm each day into the
weekend, warming to around 10 degrees above normal by Sunday.
/04-Woodrum/
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1028 AM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals as high pressure
dominates the region with mostly sunny skies. West-southwesterly
winds at Alamosa will increase to 10-15kts with gusts to 20-25 kts
this afternoon. Winds will be more southerly to southeasterly at
KCOS and KPUB increasing to around 10kts this afternoon. Winds will
decrease to around 5 kts across the terminals overnight into the
morning hours on Tuesday. /04-Woodrum/

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 7 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ224.
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ224-232-233-237.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...WOODRUM
LONG TERM...WOODRUM
AVIATION...WOODRUM