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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS65 KPUB 182057
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
257 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-- Changed Discussion --
- Isolated showers mainly over the mountains this evening and again
  Friday afternoon.

- Red Flag conditions again on Friday in the San Luis Valley.

- Cooler and unsettled weather for the weekend, especially across
  southeast Colorado.

- Warmer weather for next week.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 252 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Currently....

Shallow, post-frontal upslope flow was keeping widespread stratus in
place over the I-25 corridor and southeast mountain slopes at mid-
afternoon, while portions of the far eastern plains have mixed
slightly better, and cloud deck has lifted/broken generally from La
Junta eastward. Have seen some very light drizzle/snow flurries over
El Paso/Teller Counties where sely upslope flow is strongest, though
radar loop suggests a general downturn in precip since 2 pm. Farther
west, some shallow convection has developed over the central
mountains, where weak instability (CAPE of 100-200 J/KG) was
present. Given the persistent cloud cover, temps on the plains have
underperformed the forecast by several degrees, as readings have
stayed mainly in the 30s/40s where cloud deck was present. Over the
San Luis Valley, Red Flag Conditions have developed as of 2 pm, and
will keep warning going into the evening as gusty winds will persist
until sunset.

Tonight...

Isolated showers will linger over the mountains this evening, with
much of the precip ending after midnight as upward motion and
instability decrease. Low clouds will linger, especially around
Pueblo and Colorado Springs, where shallow e-se boundary layer flow
will persist through the night. Likely enough cloud cover/moisture
around to keep mins temps from dropping too far, and most areas
outside the higher mountain peaks will stay in the 30s.

Friday...

Areas of lower clouds in the morning will lift/break in the
afternoon as winds increase in response to falling surface pressure
(thanks to approaching upper wave) east of the mountains. Should see
a substantial boost in max temps many areas with more sun and
mixing, and a few lower elevations locations could reach 70f by late
in the day. San Luis Valley again looks windy and dry, with RH
dropping into the 10-15 percent range and winds gusting over 30 mph.
Will thus keep the current Red Flag Warning in place for the area
for another day. Weak instability (CAPE 200-400 J/KG) develops over
the mountains in the afternoon, leading to increasing shower
(isolated thunderstorm) chances over much of the high terrain,
especially after about 3 pm. Lower elevations could see some spill-
over showers late, though better chances for rain arrive overnight.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 252 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Friday night-Sunday night...Latest model data continues to indicate
moderate westerly flow loft across the Rockies Friday and Friday
night, as another embedded shortwave translates through the stronger
westerly flow in place across the Northern Tier. This passing wave
sends another re-enforcing cold front across the Plains Friday
evening, with moisture pooling along and behind the front, as well
as increasing uvv with developing mid level waa, supports scattered
to numerous showers, along with a few embedded thunderstorms, across
the central and eastern mountains and out across the southeast
Plains Friday night into early Saturday morning. Snow levels drop to
between 7000 and 8000 ft Friday night, with potential for seeing
some light snow accumulations in the Pikes Peak region, mainly on
grassy areas.

Flow aloft becomes more northwest through the day Saturday, with
more shortwave energy translating through the flow across the
southern Rockies. Easterly upslope flow developing behind the
secondary front will keep cool and cloudy conditions across
southeast Colorado on Saturday, with the best coverage of showers
and storms Saturday afternoon and evening expected over and near the
higher terrain, with added uvv from the embedded southern stream
wave.  By Sunday, drier air within the northwest flow aloft takes
hold, with the potential for a few afternoon showers over the higher
terrain.

Monday-Tuesday...Westerly flow increases again on Monday, as more
shortwave energy translates across the Northern Tier, with the
westerly flow helping to boost temperatures back to above seasonal
levels and bringing back the potential for critical fire weather
conditions to high mountain valleys and portions of the I-25
Corridor. The passing wave sends a weak front across the plains
Monday night, with upslope flow brining slightly cooler temperatures
and slightly better chances of afternoon showers across the eastern
mtns and plains on Tuesday.

Wednesday-Thursday...Upper level ridging progged to build across the
Rockies into the middle of next week, leading for a return of at and
above seasonal temperatures and the potential for a few afternoon
showers, mainly over the higher terrain.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 252 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

At KCOS, shallow post-frontal upslope will persist tonight, keeping
cigs mainly MVFR through the period. On Fri, MVFR cigs likely to
continue in the morning, slowly improving to VFR after 18z-20z.

At KPUB, easterly low level flow will keep cigs MVFR tonight, though
there may be some brief breaks in the cloud deck in the 00z-02z
timeframe. Cigs slowly improve to VFR after 18z Fri.

At KALS, VFR conditions expected the next 24 hrs. SW winds will gust
20-25 kts until 02z-03z, then diminish. SW winds with gusts to 25
kts return again after 18z Fri.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ224.
Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Friday for COZ224.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN