Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 241028

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
428 AM MDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 428 AM MDT Tue Apr 24 2018


A couple of areas of showers were noted over parts of the region at
3 am. The first area of showers were over the far eastern plains,
while a second band extended WSW-ENE across the central mountain
region. These showers were associated with a short wave dropping
southeast across the ID/MT/Wy region. The cold front associated with
this short wave moved across the region around the midnight hour,
bringing gusty winds to the plains. Low clouds were developing
behind this front across the lower elevations.


Lots of clouds and breezy conditions will be the main weather story
across the region. Temperatures will be significantly colder than
yesterday with day time high temps in the 40s and 50s (These
expected max temps may wind up being cooler than the temps that
occurred a few hours ago at midnight).

As for precip, the showers over the plains are expected to end
before sunrise this morning. The band of showers over the central
mountains are expected to move east and may affect the Pikes Peak
region later this morning. By later today, Showers are expected to
redevelop across the mtns/plains interface, with the best chance of
showers across the Pikes Peak region and Wet mtns.

Breezy northeast winds will prevail across the plains while winds
will be west to northwest across the higher elevations.


Models over the last few days have been persistent on showing a band
of precip developing east-west across the region this evening, and
the latest guidance still shows this precip band developing. At this
time, it appears the band will develop/extend east-west across, or
just to the south of, the US-50 corridor and will drop slowly south
as the night progresses.  Likewise, have drawn best pop chances this
region. Most of this precip will be rain on the plains but some
mixed precip will occur above 6000 feet. Across the Pikes Peak and
Wet mountains, 2-4" will be possible with locally higher amounts,
especially across the Wet mountains.

Temps tonight across the lower elevations will mainly be in the
L/M30s with 20s across northern El Paso, and mainly 20s in the
higher elevations. Clouds will decrease from NW to SE during the
early morning hours. /Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 428 AM MDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Wednesday-Wednesday night...Northwest flow aloft across the region
early Wednesday, behind Tuesday`s passing system, moderates through
the day with current models continuing to indicate northwest flow
increasing once again later Wednesday night, as another upper trough
digs across the Northern Rockies. Current models in good agreement
of banded precipitation across the far Southeast Plains Tuesday
night, spreading into western Kansas early Wednesday morning, and
have kept mainly silent pops across this area at this time. With
that said, dry weather and temperatures warming to near seasonal
levels can be expected on Wednesday, with highs in the mid 50s to
mid 60s across the lower elevations and mainly 40s and 50s across
the higher terrain. Increasing high level moisture across the region
Wednesday night looks to keep overnight lows mainly in 20s and 30s

Thursday-Thursday night...Models still differ on strength and
location of the aforementioned Northern Rockies system, however they
tend to agree that any precipitation associated with the passing
upper trough will confined to areas over and near the higher
terrain.  With that said, have kept isolated to scattered pops over
and near the higher terrain for Thursday afternoon and evening, with
the best coverage across the Eastern Mountains. This system remains
warmer than Tuesday`s system with any snow accumulation remaining
confined to the higher terrain and remaining generally light. This
system also sends another cold front across the Eastern Plains
Thursday morning, with gusty northerly of 15 to 30 mph expected
through out the day behind fropa. Again, this system is not as cold
with highs expected to be only slightly cooler than Wednesday.

Friday-Monday...Model differences continue into next weekend, though
the latest GFS solution is coming in slower with a deep upper low
pushing into the Great Basin, and is closer to the EC solution for
Friday. With that said, the GFS is considerably drier than its
previous runs, though still have some convection across the
Southwest mountains on Friday, where as the EC is mainly dry with
high amplitude upper level ridging in place across the Rockies.
Blended model pops still favoring GFS solution and have tapered
back pops at tad for Friday. Models continue to diverge there after,
with the GFS weakening the system as it pushes through the ridge on
Saturday and Saturday night, where as the EC is about 24 hours
slower bringing the system across the Rockies later Sunday into
Monday. With lower confidence on which solution wins out, have
stayed close to model blends, which keeps isolated to scattered pops
for areas over and near the higher terrain Saturday and Sunday, with
convection possible across the far southeast Plains on Monday.
Temperatures at and above seasonal levels look to prevail through
out this period.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 428 AM MDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Lots of clouds will be over the region today, especially over KCOS
and KPUB.

KCOS will see mvfr cigs this morning, with higher cigs later this
morning and afternoon. Some passing showers will be possible,
especially north of the terminal. Gusty northerly winds this AM will
become more northeasterly this afternoon. Showers and lower cigs
will once again be possible this evening, with clearing late.

KPUB will see lots of clouds with cigs above 3000 ft. Later today
and into the evening some showers will be possible with MVFR cigs.
CIGs should improve towards sunrise. Similar to KCOS, gusty north
winds will become northeasterly later today.

KALS...Some showers will be possible late this afternoon and evening
with brief MVFR conditions during the shower. Otherwise VFR.




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