000
FXUS65 KPUB 231007
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
407 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions continue over the San Luis
  Valley this afternoon and evening.

- Generally cooler and cloudier over the plains. A few showers
  will be possible late afternoon and evening, mainly over the
  Palmer Divide and over/near the mountains.

- Critical fire weather conditions expected on Wednesday across
  the San Luis Vally, and then expand to much of south central
  and southeast Colorado Thursday and Friday.

- Winds gusting up to around 50 mph, potentially higher, are
  expected on Thursday, along with a low risk of strong to
  severe storms across the eastern plains.

- Next system to affect the area this weekend looks to bring
  areawide increases in rain and snow chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 405 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

With the passing cold front mostly already through our area
this morning, we will be seeing some changes from yesterday`s
weather. High temperatures will be a fair bit cooler than
yesterday, with most of the area remaining in the high-60s to
low-70s. Winds over the plains will remain easterly while flow
aloft and over the mountains will retain a westerly component.
Some clouds will push up against the mountains/plains interface
while the San Luis Valley will remain mostly sunny and dry.
Westerly winds will downslope off of the higher terrain and into
the base of the valley, lowering humidity values below critical
thresholds. This, along with the general gusty winds, will
result in critical fire weather conditions through the afternoon
and into early evening.

Models are also showing some scattered shower activity late
this afternoon, first over the mountains and Palmer Divide, but
later in the day the westerly steering flow aloft could end up
pushing some precipitation eastward onto parts of the plains. At
this time showers appear high-based and relatively light,
though I wouldn`t rule out a rumble of thunder or two over or
east of the Palmer Divide.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 405 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Rising heights will make way to a return to southwesterly flow
on Wednesday, with a relatively quiet start to the day. In this
setup, will see lee troughing support increases in
south/southeast flow across the plains, which will result in
higher dew point air at the surface. As this trough is in place,
veering 700mb winds/flow will provide a window of some WAA
across the eastern plains. Would think precip chances would
increase on Wednesday, but with a rather stout cap in place and
with limited deeper moisture, quiet conditions with no real
precip development is expected across southern Colorado. Along
and west of the I-25 corridor, will see drier air moving off the
higher terrain support falling dewpoints and RH values. Gusty
southwest winds do look to develop once again Wednesday
afternoon, with critical fire weather conditions developing
across the San Luis Valley. The extent of the drier air and
stronger winds/gusts across the southern Sangres and far
southern I-25 corridor is in question, and so have not issued
any Fire Weather headlines at this time. Will message spotty
critical fire weather conditions in this area, but will monitor
for possible higher coverage and the need for a Fire Weather
headline. Further to the east, the higher dewpoint air with
cooler temperatures due to some lingering cloud cover will keep
fire danger low at this time.

An upper level low/trough lifting across the region on Thursday
could potentially bring a rather active day, with a number of
hazards possible across southern Colorado. Of most concern and
where confidence is highest, is the high fire danger over much
of south central and southeast Colorado. While not quite looking
extreme, it looks to be rather close, with west southwest winds
gusting up to around 50 mph and RH values as low as 10 percent.
At this point, the forecast of above normal temperatures will
into the 70s and 80s and dew points in the teens seems
reasonable, but could easily see lower dew points develop.
Additionally, there are hints that winds could occasionally gust
to around 60 mph Thursday afternoon and at this time it looks
like the highest chances would be south of Highway 50, where the
jet axis will move overhead. Either way, fire danger will be
high on Thursday, with fire weather headlines appearing likely
with later forecasts.

Lastly, there will be a small window for the possibility for
strong to severe storms to develop Thursday afternoon into early
evening over the far eastern plains. This potential will be
situated along and east/northeast of a deepening surface low and
where a ribbon of higher moisture and instability will reside.
While chances for severe storms will be highest just to the
east, can`t completely rule out at least an isolated stronger
storm, before the drier air surges and the focus/instability
shift out of the area Thursday evening.

Friday into Saturday look to remain active days, with high fire
danger continuing across the plains Friday and with increases
in precip chances especially Friday into Saturday. Another upper
level low looks to pivot across the region and while there is
some uncertainty with exact trends/track, model consensus at
this point is for increased chances for mountain snow and rain
over the lower levels. Thunderstorms will also be possible,
especially as this system looks to wrap moisture and instability
back into the area. Can`t completely rule out some snow over
the lower elevations of the Pikes Peak region and Palmer Divide
this weekend and will continue to closely monitor, but at this
time, confidence is low on this snow and potential impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 405 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24
hours.

At KALS, gusty west-southwest winds will set in this afternoon
to around 25 knots, lasting until evening. At KCOS and KPUB,
post- frontal winds will turn more southeasterly this afternoon,
gusting around 20-25 knots. Mid-level clouds are expected at
all three TAF sites, with slightly lower cigs at KCOS and KPUB.
Additionally, some showers could be possible this evening over
the mountains and the Palmer Divide, but currently confidence in
any impacts at the terminals is too low to include in the TAFs.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
COZ224.
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ224.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...RODRIGUEZ
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO