Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 141658

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1058 AM MDT Wed Mar 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 453 AM MDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...Mild Today with Snow Showers Developing along the Continental
Divide Tonight...

Upper high pressure ridge will drift east across forecast area
today.  Ridge axis will be over western Colorado at 6 am, over the
I25 corridor at 3 pm, and then moving into western Kansas by
midnight.  Passage of the upper ridge will result in a day of really
mild temperatures across the region.  Afternoon highs will generally
be 10-15 degrees above average for this time of year.  Winds will
not be too bad across most of the area though they will start to
increase as the upper ridge shifts eastward.  The mountains,
especially south of Highway 50, could see southwest gusts up to
about 40 mph later today and tonight.  The San Luis Valley and the
plains south of Highway 50 could see southwest winds 10-20 mph
gusting up to about 25 mph as the day progresses. Elsewhere, winds
speeds will generally be in the 5-15 mph range.

Tonight, as the upper ridge shifts east into Kansas, the flow of
moisture into the Continental Divide will increase with snow showers
developing.  The southwest mountains, including Wolf Creek Pass,
will see the best potential.  The best chance of snow will come
after midnight.  Elsewhere, not a whole lot going on through the
night.  The eastern mountains could see some scattered snow showers
develop across the highest terrain by morning but it should remain
dry elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 453 AM MDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Relatively active meteorological conditions anticipated over the
forecast district during the longer term with primary concerns
including but not limited to temperatures, pops/qpf, isolated
thunderstorm threat at times as well as gusty winds and
especially fire weather concerns/issues.

2 upper short-waves(capable of producing accumulating precipitation,
primarily over the Continental Divide and northern sections of
the forecast district) are projected to impact the CWA from
Thursday into Thursday night(including the potential for some
thunder during this time-frame) and then again from later Saturday
into Sunday evening.

The highest potential for accumulating snow(generally in the 1 to
6 inch range) in combination with gusty winds should be noted
over primarily Continental Divide locations from Thursday into
Friday morning and then again from Saturday evening into Monday

In addition, at this time, near critical to critical fire weather
conditions(favoring eastern sections) will be possible(primarily
during the afternoon and evening hours) each day from Thursday
into at least next Tuesday.

Regarding Thursday, latest meteorological trends supported
expanding the Fire Weather Watch northward, therefore have
recently added Crowley and Kiowa counties into the Fire Weather
Watch from Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.

Another longer term concern will be the potential for increased
winds, especially from Thursday into Friday and then again from
later Saturday into Sunday night.

Finally, warmest temperatures during the longer term are
anticipated Thursday and Friday, while coolest temperatures should
be realized Monday and Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1056 AM MDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Over KALS, some lower cumulus clouds will develop as the convective
temperature is attained during this afternoon, but conditions will
remain dry and VFR. KCOS will experience weak diurnal flow and
conditions will persists as VFR, but there should be some cumulus
development in the early evening hours. The winds at KPUB will be
light and the conditions will remain VFR.



Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ228>237.



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