000
FXUS65 KPUB 162048
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
248 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Northerly winds gusting to 60 mph along with areas of blowing dust
  will continue through early evening.

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue
  through early evening, with another day of high fire danger
  likely on Wednesday.

- Critical fire weather conditions possible across the San Luis
  Valley and western portions of the CWA through the end of the week.

- Cooler and unsettled weather across eastern Colorado for end
  of the work week and into the early weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 239 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

While the upper level low continues to depart well east of the area
this afternoon, stronger northerly flow is still in place across the
region. This is supporting northerly winds gusting up to around 60
mph over the far eastern plains, especially closer to the CO/KS
border. Blowing dust has been observed in this general area this
afternoon, with satellite imagery showing some slight increase in
coverage here more recently. Have been messaging this hazard and
impacts, and felt any additional dust headlines weren`t necessary at
this time. This is especially as winds are on a downward trend, and
with the the more widespread dust currently east of the area in
Kansas. Do think blowing dust will remain possible over the next
couple hours, but once again, conditions will be improving.

Winds and any remaining fire weather concerns will quickly improve
this evening, with a relatively quiet night in store tonight. We`ll
transition more back into westerly flow tonight into Wednesday, with
the stronger and more energetic flow staying just to the north. In
this setup, could see a few snow showers across the central
Mountains Wednesday afternoon, but don`t really expect much from
these showers. This will support another gusty, warm, and dry day
though with critical fire weather conditions returning to southern
Colorado. Given these trends, have upgraded the Watch to a Red Flag
Warning for Wednesday. Did expand it to include Fremont and southern
El Paso County, as some stronger gap flow will likely be in place.
Did not include northern El Paso at this time as more spotty
conditions are expected, however, will need to closely monitor the
need to expand in to this area as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 239 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Wednesday night-Thursday night...Latest models continue to indicate
moderate westerly flow aloft across the region, with an embedded short
wave within the stronger flow translating across the Northern Rockies
Wednesday night. This passing shortwave across the Northern Rockies
sends a cold front across the eastern Plains late Wednesday night,
with moist north to northeast low level winds behind the front developing
stratus across the Plains early Thursday morning, and a few possible
sprinkles, mainly across the Pikes Peak region. Cool easterly upslope
developing through the late morning and afternoon looks to keep some
clouds banked up across lower eastern slopes through much of the
day, especially in the Pikes Peak region, with temperatures across
the Plains expected to be below seasonal levels in the 50s to around
60, with the potential for a few showers developing across the eastern
Mtns Thursday afternoon and evening. Further west, some mid level
moisture embedded within the westerly flow aloft will help to develop
scattered showers across the northern and central mtns through the
day Thursday, with any accumulations expected to be light and spotty,
and confined to the higher terrain north of Cottonwood Pass. The
westerly flow will also help bump up temperatures west of the Front
Range, with highs in the 40s and 50s across the higher terrain, and
in the 60s to around 70 across the high valleys. The dry and breezy
conditions will also support another day of critical fire weather
conditions across the San Luis Valley, where a Fire Weather Watch
has been issued for Thursday afternoon.

Friday-Saturday...Models remain consistent with another short wave
translating through the westerly flow persisting across the region,
which looks to send another front across the Plains Friday night
into Saturday morning. Models do differ on the timing and the southern
extent of the front and the amount of instability in place across
the region, leading to differences in the coverage of shra/tsra,
as well as the amount precipitation across the region into the
early weekend. At any rate, have stayed close to the NBM, which
has the best coverage across the Pikes Peak region Friday afternoon
and evening, and then across the central and eastern mtns Saturday
afternoon. Temperatures across the plains to remain below seasonal
levels through the early weekend, while further west, warm and
breezy conditions west of the Front Range, will lead to continued
critical fire weather conditions for portions of the high mountain
valleys, especially the San Luis Valley into the weekend.

Sunday-Tuesday...Weak upper level ridging progged to build across
the Rockies into early next week, leading for a return of at and
above seasonal temperatures, with the potential for a few showers,
especially over and near the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1125 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

VFR conditions expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24
hours. Gusty northwest winds 15-30kts at the terminals
(strongest at COS and PUB) will diminish through the late
afternoon hours with generally light diurnal wind regimes
expected for the rest of the taf period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 7 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ224.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ224.
Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ222-
227>230-233.
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ227>230-
232-233.
High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ095>099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW