120
FXUS65 KPUB 290943
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
343 AM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few snow showers will be possible over the central
  mountains.

- Warming trend continues with parts of the plains getting near
  the 80 degree mark today.

- Critical fire weather conditions for portions of the area
  Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Quick-hitting system brings a cooldown and some precipitation
  Wednesday evening through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 338 AM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Today...

The major shortwave upstream is continuing to advance further
eastward, with high pressure conditions building back in. There is a
shortwave moving on over the northwestern CONUS that is advecting up
some moisture ahead of it from the southwest and this will be moving
over the northern areas of the region, providing a few snow showers
for the central mountains by later in the day. Otherwise, conditions
will be dry for most of the CWA, with only some mid to high level
clouds due to this mid-level moisture advection. West to
southwesterly snow will continue over the higher terrain. For the
plains, winds will switch to more of a southeasterly flow by later
in the day over the plains, which will allow for some warmer air
advection and there will be some locations getting close to the 80
degree mark for the eastern plains and within the lower Arkansas
River Valley. It will also be relatively warmer across the higher
terrain as well, with temperatures maxing out in the 60s for the
upper Arkansas River Valley and San Luis Valley, and generally in
the upper 30s to low 50s for the higher elevations.

Tonight...

With some cloud cover around and downsloping winds, temperatures
will be more modified and relatively warmer tonight, with lows
dropping into the low to mid 40s across a majority of the plains,
and generally in the 20s and 30s for high country. There could still
be a few isolated snow showers across the northern portion of the
Sawatch and Mosquito Range, otherwise, just some passing clouds.
Winds will also be increasing out of the southwest, especially
across the highest terrain.    -Stewey

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 338 AM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Tuesday and Wednesday...Models still indicate that a quick-moving
upper disturbance will cross the Rockies Tue in the general westerly
flow aloft, with much of the effects remaining north of the forecast
area. There will be some isolated shower activity across the central
mts, but otherwise a dry and very warm day expected for the forecast
area. Decided to go ahead and upgrade the Fire Weather Watch to a
Red Flag Warning for the San Luis Valley for Tue, as high temps
across the area are forecast to climb above seasonal norms. On Wed
the flow aloft becomes more southwesterly and starts to increase as
the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a stronger upper system.
This will translate to stronger surface winds, and combined with low
humidity levels and above normal temps once again, went ahead and
issued a Fire Weather Watch for those portions of the area that have
receptive fuels. Precipitation chances will be on the increase by
the afternoon across the central mts and the Rampart Range. Plan on
high temps both days in the mid 60s to around 70F for the high
valleys, and mid 70s to mid 80s for the plains.

Wednesday night and Thursday...A stronger upper low pressure system
crosses the Rockies on Wed, buy latest model runs are showing a
slightly slower progression of this system and the associated cold
front that pushes south into southeastern CO. Previous model runs
were pointing to  cold front passage in the afternoon, but now it
looks like the front will cross the Palmer Divide in the evening.
Therefore, precip chances spreading off the higher terrain and into
the eastern plains now occurs Wed night through Thu, with a 10 to 15
degree drop off in temps from Wed to Thu. The central mts will
likely receive about 2 to 4 inches of new snow through Thu, while
the remaining peaks may see up to 2 inches of new snow. The
remainder of the lower elevations will see isolated showers and
thunderstorms Wed evening, then more scattered activity across the
plains Thu afternoon. Look for highs in the 50s to around 60F for
the high valleys, and mid 50s to mid 60s for the plains, which are
well below normal.

Friday through Sunday...The upper low system exits the region by
early Friday morning, and Colorado will be between systems and under
weak westerly flow. Plan on near normal temps Fri and Sat with
isolated afternoon convection possible, then warming back up to
above normal for Sunday. Moore


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 338 AM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all TAF sites (KALS,
KCOS, and KPUB) throughout the forecast period. Winds will be
generally light, primarily less than 10 kts and diurnally influenced
at all terminals. -Stewey

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 7 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ224.
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ224-232-233-237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWARD
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...STEWARD