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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KRAH 231742
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
140 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will continue to move offshore the South Carolina
coast this afternoon and tonight. A moisture-starved cold front
could bring some some showers Wednesday before bringing slightly
cooler air for Thursday and Friday. After the cold front, high
pressure will dominate the weather across the southeastern United
States late week into the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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As of 140 PM Tuesday...

High pressure has moved off the South Carolina coast this afternoon,
allowing southwesterly flow to develop across central North
Carolina. High temperatures will likely top out around 70 degrees, a
little cooler than the typical mid 70s for highs this time of year.
Clouds will increase through the night as a cold front advances from
the northwest. Between the increasing cloud cover and southwest
winds continuing overnight, lows will be significantly warmer than
last night, with values ranging from the mid 40s to the lower 50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 232 AM Tuesday...

The dry cold front will move across the area on Wednesday. It will
actually be warmer on Wednesday with a pre-dominantly westerly flow
becoming northwest. The CAA will be delayed until Wednesday night.
A period of cloudy skies will likely accompany the front during the
morning into the early afternoon. A sprinkle can not be ruled out
although no QFP is currently advertised. Otherwise, the skies are
expected to become partly sunny Wednesday afternoon. Highs should
range in the 70s. It will be cooler Wednesday night with the flow
becoming more NE. Models and soundings suggest partly to mostly
cloudy periods on Wednesday night. Lows in the 40s to lower 50s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 240 AM Tuesday...

Extended period of dry weather through early next week with
temperatures soaring into the 80s by Mon.

Central NC will largely remain under NW flow aloft through the
weekend from the departing broad troughing shifting offshore Thurs
morning to the building subtropical ridging over the eastern CONUS.
A surface cold front is forecast to have pushed through central NC
by Thurs morning as Canadian high pressure shifts from the Great
Lakes region to just off the Northeast coast and extending down
through the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast through Fri.
This will favor below normal temperatures and dry conditions through
late week.

Surface flow shifts out of the south/southeast by Sat as the surface
high becomes suppressed south to just off the Carolina coast by Sun
evening. This will mark the pattern shift as low-level moisture and
thicknesses steadily begin to rise and an inverted trough pushes on
shore Sat afternoon. NWP guidance hints at the potential for light
rain showers to accompany the passage of the inverted trough, mainly
over southern Coastal Plain, Sandhills and into SC where higher
theta-e airmass will reach first. Although confidence is low on if
this feature will be enough to produce measurable precipitation. The
subtropical ridge and 850 anticyclone may begin to shift over the
Atlantic on Mon and may signal a change for upstream precipitation to
leak across the mountains into early next week. High temperatures
have a high likelihood of reaching >= 80 degrees (80-95% chances) by
Mon with low/mid 80s in the current forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1250 PM Tuesday...

TAF period: While the 18Z TAFs include five single-line TAFs, there
are a couple potential wrinkles to the forecast. First, there is the
potential for some marginal low-level wind shear tonight, primarily
between 06Z-12Z Wednesday, with RDU being the most likely terminal
and RWI/FAY to a lesser extent. The NAM is depicting a slightly
stronger jet than the GFS, barely touching 40kt, and will allow
later shifts to re-evaluate whether LLWS is needed. Next, the wind
is not expected to decouple overnight, so a single line for wind
appears fine, but there are some indications that overnight into
Wednesday morning could have some gusts that would be strong enough
to prompt an amendment. Finally, the forecast is currently dry
through 18Z Wednesday, but a mostly dry cold front moving through
the region Wednesday could trigger some isolated showers, with RWI
the most likely to receive rainfall.

Outlook: A wind shift can be expected Wednesday afternoon/night as
the previously mentioned cold front moves through the region. A
brief restriction cannot be ruled out in a shower. Otherwise VFR
conditions are expected through the outlook period.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Swiggett
AVIATION...Green