Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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186 FXUS62 KRAH 161512 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1100 AM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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A backdoor cold front will push south into central NC early this afternoon, then stall across the area through Saturday. An area of low pressure will cross the area Saturday night, dragging the front southward. This will allow an area of cooler high pressure to build into the Carolinas on Sunday.
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As of 1100 AM Friday... A weak surface front draped west-to-east near the Virgina border will edge south into the northern tier counties as an upper short wave races across the area and offshore early this afternoon. Meanwhile, skies will remain mostly clear, with winds picking up from the west as mixing deepens. Gusts to 25 mph are expected, which will elevate fire danger somewhat given low humidities and drying fuels. Have nudged temperatures up given a warm start on the day and fast rise exhibited after sunrise. Temps should touch the low 70s south/east with lower 60s prevalent in the Triad/Northern Piedmont. Mid to Upper-Level Clouds will overspread from west to east after dusk as a developing low progresses east toward the area.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Friday... The front will begin to lift northward as a warm front ahead of the approaching system toward daybreak Saturday. As a result, southerly warm, moist advection will begin, allowing for an increase in both cloud cover and precipitation chances from the west early Saturday morning. Precipitation amounts don`t look too impressive across our area, as the surface low occludes over the Ohio River Valley. Best chance of light precipitation arrives Saturday afternoon and overnight into Sunday morning as the remnants of the Low shifts overhead. In all, less than a quarter inch of rain is expected across the forecast area, with the higher amounts likely across the Northern Piedmont. Temperatures will remain seasonal, with 60s prevalent Saturday afternoon and lows dipping into the upper 30s/lower 40s overnight into Sunday morning. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 330 AM Friday... Sunday will see precipitation clear out and a fairly decent day take shape as high pressure moves over the state. Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s with partly cloudy skies. On Monday, attention will turn to the first of several low pressure systems that will affect the area through the work week as another deep eastern CONUS upper trough forms. The first surface low is progged to track south of the area but how far north the precipitation spreads is in question with the GFS offering a dry solution for Monday but the EC solution much wetter. Temperatures will be somewhat dependent upon how the precipitation plays out but expect lower 50s across the north to near 60 degrees in the south. There is more certainty with the follow up system that we will begin to see significant rain early Tuesday morning as a second low pressure system develops along the NC coast. Expect a wet day Tuesday with a half of an inch to an inch of rain possible. Temps in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Wednesday and Thursday will also feature slight chances for precipitation, this time with the upper level low that meanders along our northern border before lifting off to the northeast and providing support for yet another nor`easter off of the New England coast. Temps both days in the 50s. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 645 AM Friday... 24-Hour TAF Period: VFR conditions continue across all TAF sites through 12Z Saturday. A cold front will drift south through the area and stall today, allowing winds to pick up periodically, although, they should remain weaker than the gusts witnessed on Thursday. Expect gusts generally between 15 to 25kts. A general shift from W/NW to E/NE will occur toward dark Friday night. Looking ahead: VFR conditions will hold through much of Saturday as the region finds itself on the backside of a backdoor front that is expected to stall near the Carolina border. Upper level disturbances tracking ESE across the area (along the frontal zone) will bring increasing chances for sub-VFR conditions Sat/Sat night. VFR conditions may return briefly Sun, then another threat of sub-VFR conditions is possible on Monday likely persisting into the middle of next week. Confidence is not high during the Sat-Mon time frame, with wide variation among models regarding timing of these disturbances, so aviation interests should check back for the latest. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...mlm SHORT TERM...JJM LONG TERM...Ellis AVIATION...JJM/Franklin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.