Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 191907 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 307 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Cool high pressure will build over the region tonight through Saturday, and will remain in control through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 130 PM Thursday... ...Frost advisory in effect tonight for the NC Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain counties... Rest of today: Surface cold front continues to push SE through the area, having just pass through the Triangle. Based on simple extrapolation, the front should be exiting the SE zones by around 19z. The pre-frontal SWLY wind gusts across eastern NC has nearly matched the post-frontal NWLY wind gust of 25 to 30 kts. These post- frontal gusts will spread east will continue through the afternoon and early evening, gradually diminishing overnight. CAA has kicked in across the NW Piedmont, with temperatures as of 16z observation starting to fall across the Triad. This cooling trend will spread southeast through the remainder of the afternoon. Tonight: Continued CAA overnight will result in the first of two chilly nights to come. While a steady 5 to 7 kt range should preclude widespread frost development, models are hinting that winds could decouple the last few hours before daybreak, especially across the NC Piedmont. This may be allow temperatures to fall into the 33- 36 range in the Advisory area. Scattered frost will be possible in low-lying and shelter areas. Tender plants may need protection. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 PM Thursday... The expansive cP airmass centered over central US will continue to build east into the region through Saturday. This will support dry and cool temperatures. Under sunny skies, daytime highs will average a good 7 to 10 degrees below normal, ranging from lower 60s NE to mid/upper 60s south. With the sfc ridge axis drawing closer to the area, conditions should be favorable for radiational cooling. As such, will undercut statistical guidance with overnight lows in the lower to mid 30s, which will pose another threat for frost. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday... The weekend is expected to be dry as surface high pressure moves into the mid-Atlantic and New England states. With easterly flow expect temperatures slightly below normal with highs in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees and lows in the 40s. By Sunday afternoon cloud cover will begin to increase from the west as the high slides into a pattern more favorable for cold air damming. On Monday, attention will turn to a low pressure system crossing the deep south which will encroach on central NC from the southwest. With isentropic lift increasing, better chances of some stratiform rain will come into play by Monday afternoon give or take a few hours, which is a much better agreement in model timing than prior simulations. The ECMWF is still the slower of it and the GFS but the differences are much smaller. Once rain chances begin, expect them to continue through Tuesday night when the actual low is progged to cross the eastern half of the state. Lower chances will then continue through Wednesday and into Thursday morning with wrap around precip associated with the back side of the surface low as well as the upper level low which will pass behind the surface low. Therefore expect wet and unsettled conditions through the bulk of the week next week with temps highs in the 60s, moderating into the lower 70s by Thursday. Lows generally in the upper 40s to low 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 130 PM Thursday... 24-Hour TAF Period: There is high confidence that VFR conditions will dominate through the period. Frequent post-frontal WNW wind gusts of 25 to 30 kts can be expected through the afternoon, with isolated higher gusts between 30 to 35 kts possible. Winds will gradually decrease overnight, to less than 10 knots after midnight. There could be a brief period of northerly wind gusts into the middle to upper teens Friday morning, before subsiding. Looking ahead: Expect VFR conditions to persist into the weekend. A storm system tracking east across the southern US will bring the threat for widespread adverse aviation conditions in rain Monday through Wednesday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for NCZ007>011- 021>028-038>043-073>076-083-084. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...Ellis AVIATION...CBL

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