Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 161902 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 300 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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A deep upper level low over the lower Great Lakes will bring cool conditions to central NC through tonight. High pressure will cover the Southeast states Tuesday and Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 235 PM Monday... An unseasonably chilly night ahead. The strong mid level low will continue to wobble NE over the E Great Lakes region tonight, as the trough axis down through NC swings up to the NE. Passage of one particularly strong vorticity max later today into this evening will likely spawn a few sprinkles or light showers, mainly over southern and eastern sections, but overall chances for measurable precip will be rather low, as surface dewpoints continue to tumble. Once this wave passes, skies are expected to clear out as deep drying, subsidence, and a downslope flow all take over. Blustery winds from the WNW and NW this afternoon will diminish toward evening, and with the cold air advection, decreasing winds, clearing skies, temps are expected to drop to readings well below normal. Statistical guidance from recent model runs have come in cooler, and with the favorable conditions for radiational cooling, we may see a risk for patchy frost in the rural/outlying areas. Widespread frost is not expected, given the falling dewpoints, but the risk is sufficiently high to issue a frost advisory for 4am-9am tonight for a good portion of the Piedmont. Areawide lows 33-40. -GIH
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 245 PM Monday... The trough axis will finally shift to our ENE by Tue, allowing for mid level subsidence and deep drying. Low level cyclonic flow will persist from the NW with another round of frequent gusts to 20-25 mph, but as surface high pressure drifts over the NE Gulf and FL, we`ll see a diminishing trend late in the day. The breezy conditions and dry air will bring about a concern for possible adverse fire behavior, and this potential will be assessed later today and tonight. Otherwise, expect mostly sunny skies and temps staying below normal, with highs of 59-68 NE to SW before the cold air lifts out to our NE. A streak of 850 mb moisture will spread in from the NW Tue night, along a warm frontal zone advancing into NC from the SW, and clear skies early will trend toward partly cloudy overnight. Lows will be in the 40s. -GIH
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Monday... Cold air will retreat as a strong cutoff low over northern New England lifts northeast, allowing a warm front to surge north of the area Tuesday night. Temperatures will soar to the upper 70s to lower 80s under sunny skies on Wednesday, but this will be very short- lived, as a trailing cutoff low migrates across the Ohio Valley, pushing its associated cold front southeast through the area on Wednesday night. The cool air will be delayed until late, so mins Wednesday night will be mostly in the upper 50s, while highs Thursday will stall in the low to mid 70s. The second cutoff low will lift out late Thursday, but not before a weak short wave dives southeast across the area to reinforce the cool airmass in the wake of the departing low. Only a few clouds will accompany this wave, so late week skies will be mostly clear as high pressure builds in, with lows in the low to mid 40s Friday and Saturday mornings, with highs both afternoons warming to the mid and upper 60s. The surface high pressure will move over the mid Atlantic states, with overrunning developing atop the cool air already in place. Light rain could break out in the west as early as mid day on Sunday, with heavy cloudiness and increasing chances of rain Sunday night and Monday as a low pressure area is expected to develop over the Gulf states to shunt moisture northward. Highs both Sunday and Monday look to be in the 60s, but we could see 50s in the northwest which is typically cooler during CAD-type events.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 155 PM Monday... VFR conditions are likely through the next 24 hours across central NC. Scattered to broken clouds are expected through this evening, but bases will be at or above 4k ft. Clearing skies will follow tonight, with generally clear skies for Tuesday. Surface winds will continue to be blustery, sustained at 10-20 kts gusting to 20-30 kts at times through the rest of the afternoon, but they are expected to diminish by evening, continuing from the WNW at 4-8 kts through tonight. Breezy conditions will return after mid morning Tue, from the WSW at 10-20 kts, gusting to 20-25 kts. Looking beyond 18z Tue, breezy/gusty winds through Tue afternoon will diminish toward evening. VFR conditions will hold through the next several days at all sites, as high pressure drifts across FL and the SE states through mid week. A mostly dry cold front will drop NW to SE through the area late Thu, bringing a shift and winds and just VFR cloudiness at most. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ007>010-021>026- 038>041-073>076-083.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Hartfield SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...Hartfield

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