Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 251914 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 314 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered over the western Atlantic will extend westward across the Carolinas today. The resulting wind flow from the south, along with an upper trough approaching from the west, will lead to increased cloud cover and unsettled weather over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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As of 310 PM Friday... Latest surface analysis shows surface high pressure centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast with a light southerly flow across the Carolinas. Further aloft, a ridge of high pressure extends from the subtropical Atlantic northwest across the Carolinas into the southern Appalachians. A shortwave riding north on the backside of the ridge will slowly lift north across western NC this afternoon and evening. Isolated to widely scattered convection developed this afternoon in a region of weak to perhaps moderate instability in the southern Coastal Plain with just a few showers to the west across the Sandhills into the western Piedmont. As the short wave lifts north, expect convective coverage to increase across the western Piedmont late this afternoon and continue into the early evening before diminishing later this evening. SPC has central NC outlined in generally thunder and don`t expect any severe weather given weak instability and light southeast to southwest flow with bulk shear values of around 10kts. Given a weak flow and slow storm motion, locally heavy rain could be an issue. Only an isolated shower is expected after midnight with areas of stratus likely developing toward daybreak, especially in the west and south. Lows should range in the upper 60s to around 70. -Blaes
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 310 PM Friday... Moisture will continue to increase across the region on Saturday as the deep southerly flow increases. After a period of morning stratus, skies should develop some breaks allowing temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 80s. This will support perhaps a moderately unstable air mass and scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening. The best chance for storms once again appears to be across the western Piedmont and in the southeast. Convection will wane a bit during the evening but a shower can`t be rules out overnight, especially in the west. Lows will range in the upper 60s to lowers 70s. -Blaes
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 235 PM Friday... Latest longer range forecast generally on track. Sunday will start out fairly dry for central NC as the area will be between a frontal zone to the north and Alberto to the south. That frontal zone to the north will become more active with the heating of the day and possibly impinge upon our northern and western counties by late afternoon. Overnight Sunday night into Monday morning the first wave of tropical moisture will arrive from the south with some upper level support and this could linger in the area through early Tuesday morning. Periods of heavy rain can be expected during this time, particularly across southern and eastern areas. This wave will move out to sea on Tuesday morning with drier conditions later Tuesday. The next wave of tropical moisture will enter the region Wednesday into Thursday, but this will depend upon the actual track of the remnants of Alberto. Drier weather returns Friday, but with more sunshine, temperatures will rise to around 90F. With deep tropical moisture in place from Sunday through Thursday, torrential rainfall with any convection will have the potential to produce flash flooding across central North Carolina. Urban and small stream flooding risk will be highest early on with river flooding possibly becoming a problem later in the period depending on actual rainfall totals. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 PM Friday... VFR conditions are noted across much of central NC this afternoon with the exception of some MVFR cigs across the Triad and in a few locations in the Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain where some scattered convection is ongoing. Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two will develop in an arc from the southern Coastal Plain west and northwest across the Sandhills into the western Piedmont, potentially impacting the FAY, GSO and INT terminals with a much more limited threat at the RDU and RWI terminals. Convective coverage will wane this evening with a period of VFR conditions expected to dominate late this evening and overnight. However, sub-VFR conditions, mainly with low cigs are expected to return overnight after around 06Z at the FAY terminal and a little later, maybe after 08Z at the other terminals with the greatest confidence of MVFR to IFR cigs at INT, GSO and FAY. Surface winds from 160 to 200 degrees at 5 to 10kts today will decrease to less than 5 kts overnight before increasing to around 10 kts on Saturday with a few gusts to near 15 kts possible during the afternoon. Looking beyond 18Z Saturday, low clouds and reduced cigs will lift giving way to a period of VFR conditions before scattered afternoon and evening storms develop. After a period of morning stratus another round of scattered storms on Sunday. Widespread adverse aviation conditions are expected Monday into Wednesday as widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected. -Blaes && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...BLAES SHORT TERM...BLAES LONG TERM...JF/Ellis AVIATION...BLAES

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