Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 291043 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 640 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A secondary cold front will move off the Carolina coast this morning, while low pressure rapidly strengthens well off the middle Atlantic coast. High pressure will build over and then offshore of the Southeast through Saturday. A cold front will approach the region on Tuesday and move across the area on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 305 AM Friday... The latest surface analysis shows a cold front moving across the Coastal Plain with dew points in the 20s spreading east across the the Piedmont. Modest surface high pressure was centered across the lower MS Valley with a cold front draping southwest across the Great Lakes. Areas of fog that developed late Thursday evening across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain have begun to mix out and dry out as drier air moves into the Coastal Plain. Temperatures early this morning will dip into the mid 30s by daybreak with perhaps a few of the typically colder spots falling into the lower 30s. A northwest flow aloft will continue across the Carolinas and mid- Atlantic today and tonight with a modest increase in heights and a deepening boundary layer today. As surface high pressure shifts east across the Deep South and low pressure tracking north toward the Canadian Maritimes rapidly deepens, the surface pressure gradient across the Carolinas will increase today. This will support the development of breezy conditions with west to west-northwest wind and gusts of 20-30 mph, with a few gusts in excess of 30 mph, especially across the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain. The west to northwest low to mid level flow will support the development of a Piedmont trough and favorable downslope conditions that will allow dew points to remain in the upper 20s to lower 30s across the western Piedmont. This will result in RH values falling into the mid to upper 20s across the western Piedmont and lower 30s elsewhere. With suppressed RH values and gusty winds, fire weather conditions are a concern but the 0.5 to 2 inches of rain that fell across the area on Tuesday and Wednesday will hopefully keep fuels wet enough to avoid elevated fire weather conditions. Sunny skies will give way to some high based cumulus clouds this afternoon, especially the northern and western Piedmont. Temperatures will be moderated by the spring sun and westerly flow and will range from around 70 in the western Piedmont and SC border counties to the mid 60s across the northern Coastal Plain. Skies will clear this evening with some patchy high clouds arriving overnight from the west. Lows tonight will range mainly in the lower to mid 40s with some of the typically colder spots dropping into the upper 30s. -Blaes && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Friday... The dry west to northwesterly flow aloft will continue on Saturday and Saturday night. A frontal zone will shift into and develop across the OH Valley and mid-Atlantic on Saturday and may drop into VA on Saturday night. Fair weather with warming temperatures are expected across central NC. With the surface high to our south shifting east, the low level flow across central NC will become southwesterly. It may be breezy on Saturday afternoon with gusts of 20 to 25 mph possible. Some interludes of high cloudiness will spread across the area Saturday morning and perhaps again Saturday night. With low level thickness values increasing about 25m from this morning into Saturday morning, highs Saturday should warm 6 to 8 degrees from today`s highs. Highs on Saturday will range from the lower 70s near the VA border to the mid 70s across most of central NC. Lows on Saturday night will range in the upper 40s to lower 50s. -Blaes && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 245 AM Friday... Low pressure will be over the central Plains Sunday morning with a front extending to the east across Kentucky and Virginia. These states should have the primary chance for showers Sunday and Monday, but a stray shower could drift south of the VA/NC border through that time period. Have a slight chance of showers north of US-64 Monday night, but the more organized chance of showers finally arrives from the northwest Tuesday afternoon as the low moves over the eastern Great Lakes. The highest chance for showers should occur Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the cold front sweeps across central North Carolina. The timing of the frontal passage should limit the potential for any severe weather, although there will be enough instability for a chance of thunderstorms overnight. The area will dry out from west to east on Wednesday, with high pressure building in behind the departing front Thursday. Gusty winds are expected Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday because of the pressure gradient across the state. Each day will have the potential for wind gusts between 20-30 mph. Wind out of the southwest Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday will allow for above normal highs ahead of the cold front. Wednesday will be a transitional day with the frontal passage before highs drop below normal on Thursday. After low temperatures in the 50s and 60s Sunday night through Tuesday night, lows will be in the upper 30s and 40s Wednesday night. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 640 AM Friday... 24 hour TAF period: A secondary cold front is shifting east across the eastern Carolinas this morning. A cooler and drier airmass continues to build into the area with dew points falling into the 20s across the Piedmont. Areas of fog that developed late Thursday evening across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain have largely dissipated although a couple of pockets of fog may linger in the central Coastal Plain. Clear skies and general VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A strong low-level jet across the area early this morning is still producing some LLWS early this morning. The threat for LLWS will alleviate just after daybreak as westerly surface winds at 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25kts develop and continue into this afternoon. Winds will relax during the late afternoon and evening with a light west wind at 6kts or less tonight. Outlook: VFR conditions and mainly fair weather should prevail through Monday. Gusty southwesterly winds of 20-25 kts are expected on Saturday afternoon and perhaps up to 20 kts on Sunday afternoon. A cold front will approach the area on Tuesday bringing a threat of adverse aviation conditions with showers and perhaps a thunderstorm across the north late Monday and areawide on Tuesday. -Blaes
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Blaes NEAR TERM...Blaes SHORT TERM...Blaes LONG TERM...Green AVIATION...Blaes

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