Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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000
FXUS62 KRAH 291043
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
640 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A secondary cold front will move off the Carolina coast this
morning, while low pressure rapidly strengthens well off the middle
Atlantic coast. High pressure will build over and then offshore of
the Southeast through Saturday. A cold front will approach the
region on Tuesday and move across the area on Wednesday.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 305 AM Friday...
The latest surface analysis shows a cold front moving across the
Coastal Plain with dew points in the 20s spreading east across
the the Piedmont. Modest surface high pressure was centered
across the lower MS Valley with a cold front draping southwest
across the Great Lakes. Areas of fog that developed late
Thursday evening across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain have
begun to mix out and dry out as drier air moves into the Coastal
Plain. Temperatures early this morning will dip into the mid
30s by daybreak with perhaps a few of the typically colder spots
falling into the lower 30s.
A northwest flow aloft will continue across the Carolinas and mid-
Atlantic today and tonight with a modest increase in heights and a
deepening boundary layer today. As surface high pressure shifts
east across the Deep South and low pressure tracking north
toward the Canadian Maritimes rapidly deepens, the surface
pressure gradient across the Carolinas will increase today. This
will support the development of breezy conditions with west to
west-northwest wind and gusts of 20-30 mph, with a few gusts in
excess of 30 mph, especially across the northern Piedmont and
northern Coastal Plain. The west to northwest low to mid level
flow will support the development of a Piedmont trough and
favorable downslope conditions that will allow dew points to
remain in the upper 20s to lower 30s across the western
Piedmont. This will result in RH values falling into the mid to
upper 20s across the western Piedmont and lower 30s elsewhere.
With suppressed RH values and gusty winds, fire weather
conditions are a concern but the 0.5 to 2 inches of rain that
fell across the area on Tuesday and Wednesday will hopefully
keep fuels wet enough to avoid elevated fire weather conditions.
Sunny skies will give way to some high based cumulus clouds
this afternoon, especially the northern and western Piedmont.
Temperatures will be moderated by the spring sun and westerly
flow and will range from around 70 in the western Piedmont and
SC border counties to the mid 60s across the northern Coastal
Plain. Skies will clear this evening with some patchy high
clouds arriving overnight from the west. Lows tonight will range
mainly in the lower to mid 40s with some of the typically
colder spots dropping into the upper 30s. -Blaes
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.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Friday...
The dry west to northwesterly flow aloft will continue on Saturday
and Saturday night. A frontal zone will shift into and develop
across the OH Valley and mid-Atlantic on Saturday and may drop
into VA on Saturday night. Fair weather with warming
temperatures are expected across central NC. With the surface
high to our south shifting east, the low level flow across
central NC will become southwesterly. It may be breezy on
Saturday afternoon with gusts of 20 to 25 mph possible. Some
interludes of high cloudiness will spread across the area
Saturday morning and perhaps again Saturday night. With low
level thickness values increasing about 25m from this morning
into Saturday morning, highs Saturday should warm 6 to 8 degrees
from today`s highs. Highs on Saturday will range from the lower
70s near the VA border to the mid 70s across most of central
NC. Lows on Saturday night will range in the upper 40s to lower
50s. -Blaes
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.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 AM Friday...
Low pressure will be over the central Plains Sunday morning with a
front extending to the east across Kentucky and Virginia. These
states should have the primary chance for showers Sunday and Monday,
but a stray shower could drift south of the VA/NC border through
that time period. Have a slight chance of showers north of US-64
Monday night, but the more organized chance of showers finally
arrives from the northwest Tuesday afternoon as the low moves over
the eastern Great Lakes. The highest chance for showers should occur
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the cold front sweeps across
central North Carolina. The timing of the frontal passage should
limit the potential for any severe weather, although there will be
enough instability for a chance of thunderstorms overnight. The area
will dry out from west to east on Wednesday, with high pressure
building in behind the departing front Thursday.
Gusty winds are expected Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday because of
the pressure gradient across the state. Each day will have the
potential for wind gusts between 20-30 mph. Wind out of the
southwest Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday will allow for above normal
highs ahead of the cold front. Wednesday will be a transitional day
with the frontal passage before highs drop below normal on Thursday.
After low temperatures in the 50s and 60s Sunday night through
Tuesday night, lows will be in the upper 30s and 40s Wednesday night.
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.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 640 AM Friday...
24 hour TAF period: A secondary cold front is shifting east across
the eastern Carolinas this morning. A cooler and drier airmass
continues to build into the area with dew points falling into the
20s across the Piedmont. Areas of fog that developed late Thursday
evening across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain have largely
dissipated although a couple of pockets of fog may linger in the
central Coastal Plain. Clear skies and general VFR conditions are
expected through the TAF period. A strong low-level jet across the
area early this morning is still producing some LLWS early this
morning. The threat for LLWS will alleviate just after daybreak as
westerly surface winds at 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25kts develop
and continue into this afternoon. Winds will relax during the late
afternoon and evening with a light west wind at 6kts or less
tonight.
Outlook: VFR conditions and mainly fair weather should prevail
through Monday. Gusty southwesterly winds of 20-25 kts are expected
on Saturday afternoon and perhaps up to 20 kts on Sunday afternoon.
A cold front will approach the area on Tuesday bringing a threat of
adverse aviation conditions with showers and perhaps a thunderstorm
across the north late Monday and areawide on Tuesday. -Blaes-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...Blaes
SHORT TERM...Blaes
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Blaes