Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 241858 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 255 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak surface boundary will remain stationary across across South Carolina through Friday. Meanwhile an area of high pressure to our northeast will extend across central NC tonight, then drift offshore Friday. The area of high pressure offshore coupled with an area of low pressure moving northward through the eastern Gulf signal a return to a moist and unsettled weather pattern for central NC through the holiday weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 255 PM Thursday... Through mid evening, the highest threat for scattered convection will be confined to the far southern counties. This area is closest in proximity to a stalled sfc front across South Carolina, plus better/deeper moisture reside over this region. Forcing will have to rely on heating as support aloft pretty negligible. Steering flow very weak as the layer from sfc-850mb predominately ely, while the flow above 700mb west-nw. Thus, the showers and storms that develop may exhibit little motion. Since the atmosphere is still fairly wet (precipitable water around 1.75 inches), potential exists for localized flooding where the heavier rain rates occur. This threat should be confined to Scotland, Richmond and Anson Counties. Tonight, scattered convection primarily over the southern Piedmont will diminish with the loss of heating. The presence of the lingering boundary immediately to our south and available moisture will warrant a small threat of a shower overnight. Skies should vary from mostly clear across the ne half to variably cloudy across the far south and west, especially overnight as a layer of low stratus should develop over the western Piedmont prior to daybreak. Overnight temperatures generally in the 60-65 degree range with a few upper 50s possible at the normally cooler locations in the northeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 255 PM Thursday... Friday and Friday night, while a mid level s/w ridge will extend across central NC, the attendant sfc high will drift offshore Friday. The resultant return flow from the south-southeast will increase the low level moisture, initially in the west, then spreading east into the Coastal Plain by evening. This increase in moisture, along with a slightly unstable air mass as a result of heating, will support the development of isolated-scattered convection during the mid-late afternoon hours. The chances for convection appear greater over the western and southern Piedmont, dwindling quickly to the east-northeast over the northeast Piedmont/northern Coastal Plain where the atmosphere will be drier and not as unstable. Skies should remain mostly sunny-partly cloudy across the east half, permitting this region to warm solidly into the mid 80s. Across the west, variably cloudy skies and isolated/scattered afternoon convection should keep temperatures a tad cooler, mainly in the lower 80s. The bulk of the convection will diminish with loss of heating. However, a minor s/w lifting nwd on the backside of the retreating s/w ridge may trigger a few showers late Friday night in vicinity of the Pee Dee/lower Yadkin River. Otherwise it will be notably humid across the eastern counties as sly flow will advect the warm humid air mass back into this area. Under variably cloudy skies, overnight temperatures will mainly be in the upper 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 225 PM Thursday... A tropical airmass will be over central North Carolina for the entire long range period. In addition, a tropical system will be moving through the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the holiday weekend and into the northern Gulf states early next week. With that in mind, will include a chance of showers and thunderstorms for the entire period across the area. Model guidance suggests the highest chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday and again Wednesday into Thursday. General rainfall amounts in the long range will average one to two inches. However, with abundant tropical moisture in place and a tropical system nearby, any convection will have the potential to produce torrential downpours and localized flooding. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 125 PM Thursday... While VFR parameters will persist over the northern TAF sites through this evening, low end VFR/MVFR conditions are probable in vicinity of KFAY through this evening due to ceilings and scattered convection. Late tonight, VFR conditions appear likely at KRWI, KFAY and KRDU thanks to an area of high pressure. There may be a brief instance of MVFR/IFR ceilings at KFAY between 09Z-13Z Friday. Over the western Piedmont, including KINT and KGSO, circulation around the sfc high should advect low level moisture and cause a deck of low stratus to develop, mainly between 10Z-15Z Friday. This stratus deck should gradually lift into a scattered cu field by mid day. The weather pattern will become increasingly unsettled from Saturday through Tuesday across central NC, with a high probability of MVFR ceilings along with scattered-widespread showers and a few thunderstorms. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...Franklin AVIATION...WSS

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