Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 220633 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 230 AM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Cold high pressure will build in from the northwest through Friday. Another storm system will approach from the west over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 740 PM Wednesday... Overcast skies will linger a few more hours over central NC. There will also be some very light showers with mostly trace amounts of rain expected. The exception will be across the western and northern Piedmont where some light snow may still mix in with the rain. No accumulation is expected as temperatures remain well above 32. In addition, drier air will filter in from the NW. When combined with downslope flow off the ridges, expect clearing to begin. Clearing is expected to develop from the NW late evening, then reach the Coastal Plain late tonight. Temperatures will be cold, but will be held up by mixing (winds will stir at 5-10 mph) and the lingering cloudiness. Lows by daybreak should still dip into the upper 20s to mid 30s. Black ice is not expected due to the warm ground, evaporation, etc...
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 PM Wednesday... Thursday, the deep upper level low will scoot off the New England coast. It will remain breezy due to the difference between high pressure over the lower MS Valley and the deep low off of New England. A series of upper level perturbations in the nw flow aloft will pass overhead. During max heating, the lift provided by this system coupled with marginal moisture through the column may support a few isolated rain showers, primarily over the far northeast Piedmont into the coastal plain. At this time, it appears coverage will be too limited to mention in the forecast. A 850mb thermal trough to our nw will maintain low level cold air advection Thursday. This will result in max temps a solid 10-13 degrees below normal for late March, ranging from near 50 across the far north to the mid 50s across the south. Sfc high pressure will nose into central NC from the sw Thu night. this should allow the sfc winds to decouple. With the cool dry air mass in place, overnight temperatures should tumble into the upper 20s-lower 30s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 100 PM Wednesday... A dry start to the long term for a day at least as surface high pressure lingers west of the area keeping skies clear but cool, with northwesterly downslope flow prevailing. This will keep high temperatures down in the lower 50s across the northeast to upper 50s in the southwest. Clouds will increase in the west on Friday night in response to a low developing over Missouri and a warm front extending eastward ahead of it. Any precipitation associated with this front will hold off until Saturday afternoon but a slight chance exists that precip could come in a bit earlier in the Triad. As the low approaches, it will begin to dive south of the area which could once again present some winter P-type issues for at least the northern half of the forecast area. Current forecast soundings along the I-40 corridor appear cold enough for at least a wintry mix of precipitation. There is a lot of uncertainty as far as the snow question is concerned. One is will there be enough moisture in the dendritic growth zone to support snow. Another is the amount of lift available through that layer. Temperatures are another concern especially further south and east because soundings indicating a possible weak warm nose that will play a role in determine exactly what falls from the sky. Bottom line is precip chances through the weekend are high, but north of route 64, it is unclear exactly what it will be. Southern portions of the CWA should bet on all rain at this point. Precipitation looks to end by Sunday evening which is welcome news for the morning commute on Monday which will be fairly cold but most likely unhindered by winter weather. Temps Saturday and Sunday in the upper 40s to low 50s. Monday will most likely start out very cloudy as high pressure to the northeast moves into a favorable location for cold air damming. This could present a drizzle threat for much of the day, especially in the Triad. Highs Monday still only in the upper 40s to mid 50s. By Tuesday the high starts to push southward over the Carolinas which may help to start to break some of the cloud cover and add a few degrees to the afternoon high, mid 50s. By Wednesday the high finally slips south and east of the area and a much welcome southerly return flow ensues. This will bring a very noticeable difference in the weather and the temperatures as highs climb into the low 60s across the north to near 70 degrees in the south. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 230 AM Thursday... VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hour TAF period. Current overcast VFR ceilings will scatter out from the southwest as the extensive cloudiness associated with the low pressure system off the mid Atlantic lifts northeast. Northwest winds will pick up to 10 to 12 knots gusting to 20 knots by 15Z, mainly in the west, then diminish towards sunset. High pressure will maintain VFR through Friday night. Aviation conditions will deteriorate rapidly early Saturday morning as our next system approaches, with lowering ceilings and precipitation overspreading the area during the day. Unsettled weather will linger through early next week, but conditions are expectd to improve to primarily VFR by late day Sunday.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...Ellis AVIATION...mlm is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.