Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 200649 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 245 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Chilly high pressure will build south over the region tonight through the weekend. Low pressure is forecast to track east across the Gulf Coast states this weekend, then turn up the eastern seaboard early next week. This will bring unseasonably cool and wet conditions early to mid next week. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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As of 245 AM Friday... ...Frost Advisory 400 AM through 900 AM for all but the SE... 1035+ mb cold surface high pressure was located over the upper Midwest early this morning. CAA will continue this morning, then the pressure gradient is forecast to relax this afternoon. This will lead to much, much lighter winds today. Very dry air will also be in place today. We expect sunny skies and light north winds at 5-10 mph. Highs will only be able to reach the lower 60s NE ranging into the mid 60s SW, or about 10-12 degrees below normal. A frost advisory was considered again tonight. However, the trends in the statistical guidance have been a bit upward, now indicating 35-40 may be more likely than lower to mid 30s. If this trend continues, we may escape widespread frost concerns tonight. We will hold off on an Advisory for now and evaluate again late morning or early afternoon. It appears that the culprit in the slightly higher temperatures with the statistical guidance may be related to the expected weak reinforcing cold front that should push south into the area this evening. This would generate mixing, slowing the cooling process. This is depicted best by the forecast increase in surface pressures by 5+ mb between 06z and 12z/Saturday. Statistical guidance is forecasting a bump in dew points into the 30s overnight with a more ENE flow. Given these trends, we will continue the forecast of clear tonight with lows in the 35-40 range. Any frost should be scattered and confined to the low lying areas where cold air drainage is common.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 245 AM Friday... The chilly high pressure center is forecast to drift off the VA/NC coast late Saturday with another reinforcing high expected to follow Saturday night. Expect only a few jet related cirrus at times, mainly Saturday night. Highs Saturday with light winds should be in the 65-70 range. Lows Saturday night creep up just a bit into the upper 30s to mid 40s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday... The weekend is expected to be dry as surface high pressure moves into the mid-Atlantic and New England states. With easterly flow expect temperatures slightly below normal with highs in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees and lows in the 40s. By Sunday afternoon cloud cover will begin to increase from the west as the high slides into a pattern more favorable for cold air damming. On Monday, attention will turn to a low pressure system crossing the deep south which will encroach on central NC from the southwest. With isentropic lift increasing, better chances of some stratiform rain will come into play by Monday afternoon give or take a few hours, which is a much better agreement in model timing than prior simulations. The ECMWF is still the slower of it and the GFS but the differences are much smaller. Once rain chances begin, expect them to continue through Tuesday night when the actual low is progged to cross the eastern half of the state. Lower chances will then continue through Wednesday and into Thursday morning with wrap around precip associated with the back side of the surface low as well as the upper level low which will pass behind the surface low. Therefore expect wet and unsettled conditions through the bulk of the week next week with temps highs in the 60s, moderating into the lower 70s by Thursday. Lows generally in the upper 40s to low 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 145 AM Friday... 24-Hour TAF Period: High confidence VFR conditions will prevail through Saturday. Looking ahead: Expect VFR conditions to persist through the weekend. A storm system is forecast to bring IFR CIGS and VSBYS with rain and fog late Monday or Monday night into Wednesday morning. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for NCZ007>011- 021>028-038>043-073>076-083-084. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...Ellis AVIATION...Badgett

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