Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 190806 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 405 AM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A large ridge of high pressure will persist over the southeastern United States through Wednesday, bringing hot and humid conditions. A cold front will approach the region from the north on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 350 AM Tuesday... Have expanded the heat advisory to include Wake, Franklin and Warren counties. Heat ridge centered across the southern Appalachians, featuring H8 temps 21 to 22 C will support highs in the mid to upper 90s today. Similar to what we saw Monday, a light west-northwesterly component will allow afternoon dewpoints to mix out ever so slightly across the western Piedmont. However, across central and eastern areas, east of the weak sfc trough axis, lower to mid 70s dewpoints are expected to produce heat index values of 104 to 107 degrees. After some minor changes to temps and dewpoints, the heat advisory has been expanded every so slightly westward to include Wake, Franklin and Warren counties. Coverage today is expected to be less than Monday, with strong heating invof of the lee surface trough and any outflow boundaries making for an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible just about anywhere. Any convection will quickly dissipate with loss of heating. Lows overnight 73 to 78, which will continue to challenge record hi-mins.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 350 AM Tuesday... Low-level thicknesses and H8 temps begin to wane Wednesday in response to the de-amplifying and southward suppression of the the mid/upper level ridge into the Deep South/eastern GOM. Thus, highs Wednesday should average a few degrees cooler than today. Highs ranging from lower 90s north to mid 90s south. When combined with the 70 degree dewpoints, heat indices across the Sandhills and southern and central Coastal Plain counties will once again range between 103 to 107 degrees. As such, we will likely need to issue another heat advisory on Wednesday for much of the same area. Isolated to scattered diurnal convection should once again develop near the lee surface trough Wednesday afternoon. The northern/northeastern tier counties have the potential to see a period of likely pops during the late afternoon/early evening, where closer proximity to a quasi-stationary west-east frontal boundary and associated convection/outflow extending across the Mid-Atlantic region could propagate south into the area. Enhanced sheared to the north along the front, could result a few strong to severe storms across the northeastern counties. Lows Wednesday night in the lower to mid 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 405 AM Tuesday... Mid to upper level ridging over the SE CONUS to begin the period is expected to transition into broad scale troughing by the end of the weekend. A frontal boundary will begin to dig south through the mid Atlantic, progressing across the VA/NC border around sunset Thursday night. SFC heating ahead of the boundary, along with some added lift from the approaching front, will promote enhanced multicellular Thunderstorm development across the area by Thursday evening, with activity likely to continue into at least early Friday morning. Some discrepancy on just how long the boundary (and associated thunderstorm activity) takes to lift north of the area, but most models project a slightly cooler and drying trend to persist Friday evening into Saturday. Expect afternoon highs on Friday to be in the mid to upper 80s (north) to low 90s (south), and 2 - 3 degrees warmer on Saturday. Southerly flow returns late Saturday into Sunday, allowing temps to once again rebound consistently into the mid to upper-90s across NC. Early next week, a rapidly intensifying area of low pressure looks to progress off of the NE CONUS, sweeping a cold front through the Mid Atlantic, with a surge of cooler and drier air south through our region. This would provide an uptick in storm coverage Monday evening and Tuesday, with a cooler and drier airmass settling in by midweek. Overnight low temperatures will consistently drop into the low to mid 70s, with a few 60s possible early next week after the front pushes through.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 135 AM Tuesday... 24 Hour TAF Period: Expect predominately VFR conditions through the TAF period. The exception will be with any isolated convection that develops this afternoon/ early evening. Outlook: The chances of adverse aviation conditions in showers and thunderstorms will increase on Wednesday through Saturday as a cold front approaches and then stalls near or just north of the region. && .CLIMATE... Max temperature and high-minimum temperature records... GSO: REC HI DAY MAX YR MIN YR 06/19 100 1944 77 1970 06/20 100 1924 75 2009 06/21 100 1933 75 1924 06/22 100 1914 75 1981 ------------------------------------- RDU: REC HI DAY MAX YR MIN YR 06/19 102 1944 73 2010 06/20 102 1887 77 1924 06/21 101 1933 75 1933 06/22 100 1981 78 1933 ------------------------------------- FAY: REC HI DAY MAX YR MIN YR 06/19 102 1944 77 2017 06/20 102 1970 77 2009 06/21 105 1933 84 1928 06/22 101 1990 84 1928 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ010-011-026>028-041>043-077-078-085-086-088-089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...JJM AVIATION...CBL/JB CLIMATE...KCP

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