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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KRAH 200154
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
954 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region late tonight into early Saturday,
and then settle just to our south late Saturday. A wave of low
pressure will track along the front Sunday into Monday, bringing
unsettled conditions and cooler temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 950 PM Friday...

As of the 00Z surface analysis, the surface low was roughly over
upstate SC. There may be a secondary low over the northern/central
Coastal Plain of NC, with a wedge-like boundary draped SW through
the southern Piedmont and wrapping northward through the Foothills
to meet the approaching cold front over the Appalachians. The 00Z
upper air analyses reveal plentiful moisture at and below H7 over
central NC and a weak mid/upper disturbance moving through the
Carolinas/mid-Atlantic. There continues to be scattered showers and
isolated storms over the Foothills and western Piedmont, ahead of
the approaching cold front. While the front may get hung up over the
mountains early tonight, expect it to progress eastward into central
NC late tonight/early Sat morning, picking up the initial low and
kicking it eastward through the area. The isolated to widely
scattered showers/storms should also move eastward through the area
tonight as the cold front advances. Lows are still expected to range
from upper 50s to mid 60s, with redevelopment of low stratus across
much of the area tonight.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM Friday...

The cold front will be sinking south through far southern NC on
Saturday morning, and it will continue to sink into SC through the
day. With westerly flow aloft and no upper forcing to speak of,
Saturday should be a dry day across the area, except can`t rule out
a stray shower in our far southern counties in the afternoon and
evening. Forecast highs range from lower-70s in the far north to
upper-70s to 80 in the far south, which is within a few degrees of
normal, as the coolest air looks to get hung up over the mountains
and lag behind the front. Isentropic lift will improve overnight
Saturday night, helping light rain begin to spread in from south to
north. Soundings show low-level dry air may result in mostly virga
across the north. Regardless amounts through 12z Sunday should be
light, only around a tenth of an inch or less. Lows will be in the
upper-40s to mid-50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM Friday...

A weak shortwave trough will move NE from the Deep South to the
Carolinas on Sunday and Sunday night, as an associated surface low
rides along a cold front from east of the GA/SC coast to off the NC
coast. Southwesterly flow aloft will increase moisture advection
into central NC during this period. Confidence continues to be high
for a period of widespread light to moderate rain across much of the
area on Sunday afternoon and evening, when POPs are likely outside
of the far north and even categorical in the south and southeast.
Forecast totals range from a tenth to a quarter inch over our far
northern counties to around a half inch in the far south, maybe a
bit higher in the southern Coastal Plain. With the front well to our
south by this point from southern GA to off the SC coast, we will be
cool and stable which will prevent any chance of storms and result
in just stratiform rain. It will also keep rain rates from getting
too heavy, and forecast amounts are not high to begin with, so not
concerned about a flooding threat. Leaned toward the cooler guidance
for temperatures on Sunday given potential for some CAD. Highs in
the mid-to-upper-50s will be possible in many areas, and raw GFS and
NAM guidance suggests even cooler highs than that. Widespread rain
will exit to the east on Sunday night and skies will begin to clear
as the low moves away. Lows will be in the 40s.

A more potent shortwave will pass through GA and SC on Monday
afternoon and evening, but the air mass will be much drier by this
point and the best upper forcing will be to our south. Also the GFS
which had been the wettest model continues to trend drier. So the
vast majority of the area should be free of precipitation, but can`t
rule out a bit of light rain in the far SE. Regardless it will be
quite cool once again, with forecast highs in the lower-to-mid-60s.

Tuesday will finally turn sunny and dry as surface high pressure
builds in, with highs increasing back to near normal (in the lower-
to-mid-70s). Tuesday morning looks chilly with decent radiational
cooling, and forecast lows are in the lower-40s and possibly some
upper-30s in outlying areas. Yet another cold front will approach on
Wednesday, as southwesterly flow ahead of it warms temperatures into
the mid-70s to lower-80s. Can`t rule out a stray shower with it, but
the vast majority of ensembles are dry and the best upper forcing is
well displaced from us across the northern Mid-Atlantic. Thursday
and Friday will turn cooler again as Canadian high pressure builds
down from the north. Have slight chance POPs on Friday as models
show a bit of light rain from overrunning can`t be ruled out as the
frontal zone starts to lift back north.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 740 PM Friday...

24 hour TAF period: At KINT/KGSO, VFR conditions should prevail
through the TAF period, although a brief period of MVFR cigs is
possible between 06Z and 10Z. An isolated shower/storm will be
possible through midnight, drying out as a cold front moves in
thereafter. Elsewhere, fairly high confidence IFR cigs will once
again develop between 03Z and 06Z Sat, then persist through the
remainder of the night, possibly dipping to LIFR around daybreak,
then slowly lifting/scattering through Sat morn, possibly lingering
into the afternoon at KRWI. An isolated shower/storm will be
possible near all three terminals overnight as the front slides SE
through the area, but should be relatively brief. Expect winds
mainly 5 kts or less to become nwly/nnwly in the wake of the front,
increasing into the 5-10 kt range Sat aft. -KC

Outlook: Expect mostly dry through Sat night. Rain and associated
sub-VFR restrictions will spread south to north into the area Sunday
and into Sunday night as a wave of low pressure tracks along a slow
moving south of the area. Rain chances may linger at FAY Monday.
Otherwise VFR conditions are expected through Tue. A weak cold front
moves in from the NW Wednesday, but chance of precip and associated
restrictions is low confidence at this time. -CBL

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...Danco
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...KC/CBL