-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
671
FXUS62 KRAH 020113
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
915 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will build over the Carolinas and Southeast this
evening through Friday, resulting in very warm temperatures. A
series of weak upper level disturbances will move through the region
Friday evening through Sunday, bringing periods of unsettled
weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 848 PM Wednesday...

Radar imagery reveals that most of the isolated storms have
dissipated with the loss of daytime heating. A few rogue cells still
exist along the central Coastal Plain, but otherwise we are quiet.
Satellite and ASOS/AWOS observations coupled to radar reveal that
the surface trough boundary is somewhat ill-defined over the
Sandhills to central/northern Coastal Plain. The boundary appears
marked by a slight wind shift and some slightly higher dewpoints on
the southern part of the boundary. Radar reveals a sea-breeze as
well moving further inland across the Coastal Plain, though most
sites are reported 5 kts or less of wind. Storm coverage appears at
an end, but a few rogue storms could develop over the central
Coastal Plain in proximity to the two aforementioned boundaries,
with all activity out by 11 pm at the latest. Ridging aloft will
build overhead and at the surface, with only some high clouds
whisping overhead. The clear skies and light winds should make for
good radiational cooling, tempered though by higher dewpoints. These
higher dewpoints could also lead to fog development, as the
HRRR/RAP/HREF/NBM suggest. However, given that rainfall was rather
limited in coverage, it might be difficult to determine where, if
any, it may form. An observational perspective would suggest the
Sandhills to Coastal Plain would have the highest chance of any fog,
where dewpoints are in the mid to upper 60s and where rainfall was
more prominent. However, would not be surprised if the fog developed
as far west as Raleigh with the inland sea-breeze moving west. Lows
will be in the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Wednesday...

The weather should remain quiet on Thursday with a weak surface high
over the region. A weak upper level ridge should also build across
the Carolinas, limiting overall sky cover. The primary exception to
that should be the development of a sea breeze along the coastline,
which should push some scattered diurnal cumulus clouds across
southeastern counties during the afternoon. In addition, some high
clouds should begin to move in from the west late Thursday night.
Mid to upper 80s are forecast for Thursday, with an isolated 90
degree reading possible. Rising heights should also allow for warmer
overnight lows, generally in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 PM Wednesday...

Strong upper level ridge will influence the region Friday before
moving offshore early Saturday. A series of shortwaves will move
across the region early next week. At the surface, high pressure
will influence the Mid-Atlantic region. Light calm winds with mostly
sunny skies will set up for warm day Friday with highs well above
average in the mid to upper 80s both days. By Saturday morning
confidence in the forecast becomes better than it has in the past
few days. Latest data shows by Saturday morning increased moisture
values of 1.5+ ahead of a cold front moving across the TN and OH
valley. As the front moves into the region it will bring isolated to
scattered showers and storms to the area Saturday and again Sunday.
The cold front will move across the region Sunday before stalling
across the region on Monday. Less coverage is expected on Monday but
depending where the front stalls, isolated to scattered showers and
storms could be possible especially in the afternoon with daytime
heating. The stalled front is expected to dissipate and most of
Tuesday is expected to be dry, but multiple long range models show
another round of showers and storms developing by late afternoon
Tuesday ahead of another frontal passage moving across the Southern
Plains and Southeast.

Temperatures over the weekend will largely depend on timing and
coverage of the precipitation, but generally expect highs in the
upper 70s to low/mid 80s. Lows in the upper 50s and low 60s.
Temperatures are expected to increase through the week with highs 10
to 15 degrees above average by Wednesday. Most of the region will
see upper 80s to low 90s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 915 PM Wednesday...

Shallow moisture advection behind the seabreeze may result in patchy
fog affecting the Coastal Plain (FAY/RWI) with less confidence on
impacts at RDU. Fog/stratus will quickly clear after daybreak with
light winds generally out of the southeast through the afternoon
with scattered fair weather cumulus.

Looking beyond 00z Thu, VFR conditions will prevail through Fri. The
chance for sub-VFR conditions within scattered to numerous showers
and storms will increase starting Fri night, lasting through Sun, as
a series of disturbances passes over the region. Areas of early-
morning fog are also expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Kren
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...pwb