Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 251933 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 330 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Another low pressure system will approach central NC from the west Thursday, and cross our area late Thursday night and Friday. A more tranquil weather pattern will take hold of the Carolinas this weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 330 PM Wednesday... Deep, mature upper level low over central NC this morning has continued to drift east-northeast, and appears to be opening up (per water vapor imagery). Subsidence behind this departing system and the inclusion of drier air into the mid-upper levels of the atmosphere should limit additional shower activity. Thus expect just a few showers along and east of I-95 through late afternoon, with most of the showers confined to our extreme northeast sector. Otherwise, expect a general dissipating trend in cloud coverage through the evening with mostly clear/partly cloudy anticipated overnight. Min temps generally in the low-mid 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 330 PM Wednesday... Another well defined cyclone, this one currently crossing the central Plains into the Ozarks, will continue to move eastward into the TN Valley Thursday, and encroaching upon the southern Appalachians late afternoon. While the day will start out partly cloudy across central NC, expect clouds to increase/thicken across the western counties by mid day, and across the remainder of central NC in the afternoon. Increasing diffluence aloft will provide enough lift to trigger a few showers by late in the day across the western Piedmont. Max temps will vary from the upper 60s/around 70 in the west-nw where clouds will thicken earlier in the day, to the mid 70s across the east. Thursday night will see the highest chance for showers/isolated thunderstorms as the mid/upper level low lifts newd up the spine of the Appalachians. The greatest concentration for showers/storms will be across the western Piedmont. Expect a few storms overnight, primarily west of highway 1 as mid level lapse rates between 6.5-7 deg C/km passes overhead. In addition, some of the storms may display good organization and possibly some mid level rotation as bulk shear 35-40kts expected. A deterrent to the development of strong/severe storms will be limited low level instability. Thus, an isolated strong/severe storm cannot be ruled out. However, the main weather hazard may be locally heavy downpours. Area creek and streams are running a little higher than normal due to recent rainfall. If showers/storms develop into a training pattern, could see flooding of small tributaries occur. Friday, the low pressure system will lift nwd, slowly dragging a cold front across the region during the day. During max heating, could see a few showers/storms develop along this boundary in the afternoon, mainly along and east of highway 1. A mixture of sun and clouds and west-sw low level flow should boost afternoon temperatures into the low-mid 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 155 PM Wednesday... The forecast is expected to be dry during this period, with near to slightly below normal temperatures through Monday, moderating to around to slightly above normal by Wednesday. As the shortwave low moves away from the area, getting absorbed in the longwave trough, another shortwave will swing through the Deep South/Gulf Coast Friday night and out over the Atlantic by Saturday aft/eve. Meanwhile, the parent low will swing through the Great Lakes and into New England through Sunday. The longwave trough axis will extend southward, moving over the Atlantic by Sunday night. The general northwest flow pattern and a reinforcing dry cold frontal passage Saturday/Saturday Night will result in temperatures near to slightly below normal for late April. High pressure will remain over the region through Monday, shifting offshore Tuesday. As a result, expect a return to more southerly flow and increasing temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 125 PM Wednesday... Aviation conditions will gradually improve across central NC through this evening. Current MVFR/low end VFR ceilings will gradually lift and dissipate through 22Z, with mostly clear-partly cloudy skies expected tonight. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to drift to the east-northeast across the eastern Piedmont and most of the Coastal Plain through 22Z. The heavier showers and isolated storms will be accompanied by small hail. This hail threat appears to be highest immediately north of the KRDU and KRWI terminals. Mostly VFR parameters expected later tonight through Thursday. Another low pressure system will affect central NC Thursday night into Friday with MVFR ceilings and scattered-numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms. The convective coverage appears to be highest late Thursday evening through early Friday morning. A cold front will cross central NC Friday afternoon. A drier and a more stable air mass will overspread the region, leading to VFR parameters through the weekend and into early next week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...WSS

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