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869
FXUS62 KRAH 021840
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
240 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A backdoor cold front will approach the area from the northeast on
Friday before stalling over the northern Coastal Plain by Saturday
morning. A series of weak upper level disturbances will move through
the region Friday evening through Sunday, bringing periods of
unsettled weather.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 230 PM Thursday...

An unseasonably strong mid-level ridge of 580dam at H5 will extend
up through the Southeast and into the central Mid-Atlantic through
tonight. A convectively enhanced disturbance will help shift the
axis of the ridge towards the coast as it pivots across the Mid-MS
and lower OH Valley, but will do very little to weaken the ridge
heading into Fri morning. Mostly clear skies tonight and a weak
pressure gradient across central NC would favor pockets of calm
conditions and some radiational cooling potential, but light
stirring across the Piedmont should prevent prolonged cooling. Lows
tonight will generally range from the upper 50s to low 60s while mid
50s will be possible in spots where calm surface conditions are able
to persist in the Piedmont.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 230 PM Thursday...

A convectively enhanced disturbance over the Ohio Valley Fri morning
will largely remain to our west and north as it rides through the
western periphery of the high amplitude ridging along the East Coast
through the Great Lakes. At the surface, a lobe a high pressure will
ridge south through the Northeast and down the Mid-Atlantic coast
during the daylight hours. This should effectively push a shallow
backdoor cold front combined with the seabreeze through southeastern
VA into the northern Coastal Plain of central NC Fri evening before
stalling overnight. 12z Hi-Res guidance hints at some isolated
shower potential early Fri afternoon over the Piedmont, but limited
instability, dry air aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer will
likely prevent much outside of towering cumulus and an isolated
shower.

Otherwise, a very similar airmass will be in place with marginally
cooler 850mb temperatures compared to Thurs and would result in
highs in the upper 80s to around 90. Thickening mid/high clouds and
bubbling cumulus during the afternoon may keep temperatures in the
Triad closer to low/mid 80s. Underneath a blanket of cloud cover
overnight, lows will be more uniform across the area with lows in
the low/mid 60s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 220 PM Thursday...

The first half of the extended forecast will feature an unsettled
pattern. A weak surface low will be over the Ohio River Valley
Saturday morning, slowly move to the east over Virginia by Sunday
morning, then dissipate. A cold front will extend to the south from
the low, and the front will be the primary rain-maker over the
weekend. Extended likely pops a bit farther to the east both
Saturday and Sunday. Rainfall amounts will range from a quarter inch
in the southeast to nearly an inch in the northwest - needed
rainfall, but not enough to change the drought status (almost all of
which is D0 - abnormally dry - in our area). All locations will have
at least a slight chance of thunderstorms, although instability
values will be a little higher in the west. After the upper 80s and
lower 90s of today and tomorrow, highs will be more seasonable for
the weekend, ranging from the upper 70s the mid 80s.

An upper level trough will approach the area Monday and move
overhead Tuesday, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms to
all locations. The forecast should then generally dry out for the
middle of the week. However, an upper ridge will build across the
Carolinas, and with southwesterly surface flow, temperatures will
rise above normal again. By Wednesday and Thursday, highs should be
in the lower 90s with lows around 70, values more typical of July
and August than early May.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 125 PM Thursday...

VFR fair weather cumulus has developed mainly across the Sandhills
and southern Coastal Plain, affecting FAY, will quickly disperse
shortly after sunset. Light winds out of the southeast will slowly
veer around to southwesterly by Sat afternoon. Crossover
temperatures will be more difficult to achieve tonight compared to
this morning and result in less favorable fog potential. Shallow
moisture advection off the Atlantic and pockets of radiational
cooling may develop another round of fog, potentially dense in
spots, but probabilities are more favorable south of FAY.

Looking beyond 18z Fri, VFR conditions are likely to hold through
Fri, although mid/high clouds will gradually increase from the west.
The chance for sub-VFR conditions within scattered to numerous
showers and storms will increase starting late Fri night, lasting
through Mon, as a series of disturbances passes over the region.
Areas of early-morning fog are also expected. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Swiggett/Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Swiggett
SHORT TERM...Swiggett
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Swiggett/Hartfield