-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KRAH 210614
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
215 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A couple of mid and upper-level disturbances will approach and
interact with a frontal zone that will settle off the coast of the
Carolinas through this evening. High pressure will otherwise
build across the Middle-Atlantic states through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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As of 215 AM Sunday...

Light rain developing with a chilly NE breeze this morning.

Occasional rain this afternoon, ending from the west this afternoon
and in the east this evening.

Temperatures falling into the 40s and 50s through the day.


A cluster of showers and thunderstorms continues to threaten hail
Sampson and Wayne counties this hour. This activity is quickly
moving SE and should be out of our region before 300 AM. Weak low
pressure was located over the southern Coastal Plain where dew
points were in the 60s. The trailing front delineated very dry air
with dew points in the 20s/30s NW NC and VA to 50s/60s over central
and eastern NC.

Meanwhile, a couple of shortwave perturbations now over NE and the
N TX , respectively, will come into phase as they pivot
across the mid MS Valley through 12Z. The associated ascent will
cause a separate area of light, stratiform rain to overspread cntl
NC generally between 08-14Z, with a combination of CAA and
evaporative cooling that will result in low temperatures
falling into the 40s and 50s through the morning. Highs will occur
at the current time, with falling temperatures expected through the
day with the occasional light rain.

The rainfall amounts are expected to range from less than 0.10 in
the NW to around a third to a half inch in the south and east. The
rain is expected to taper off through the afternoon west, and in the
east-central regions this evening.

Cloudiness will be slow to clear tonight with lows in the 40s, some
upper 30s north-central Piedmont.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 210 AM Sunday...

Although some showers could persist along the immediate North
Carolina coastline Monday morning, it appears that all of the rain
should have moved east of the forecast area. Skies will be clearing
through the day, but a persistent northerly wind will keep
temperatures below normal, although warmer than Sunday - widespread
mid 60s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 210 PM Saturday...

In the previous forecast package, the primary concern for the second
half of the week was whether a cold front was going to stall in the
vicinity of the Carolinas and allow for diurnal showers or whether
it would push south and allow for a dry forecast. The most recent
model guidance seems to suggest that there is minimal potential for
showers on Wednesday (with nearly all precipitation remaining to the
north), but that the cold front should push through the region. The
better chance of showers in the extended forecast should be Saturday
near the warm front of a second system moving into the Plains.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 155 AM Sunday...

VFR ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR then IFR with light
rain today. VSBYS will mostly lower from VFR to MVFR with the
light rain through the day.

Flight conditions will be lowest and rain relatively heaviest at
RDU/FAY/RWI. A period of NE gustiness may also result this
morning to 25kt, especially at RWI and RDU, as an area of surface
low pressure develops/ strengthens along the aforementioned,
offshore front.

Outlook: Light rain and flight restrictions will end from southwest
to northeast Sunday evening. High pressure through early next week,
then the passage of a moisture-starved cold front Wednesday
afternoon-evening, will favor VFR conditions through most of the
next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Badgett/MWS