Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 240216 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1016 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will push southward through central North Carolina tonight. This front will settle across South Carolina Thursday through Friday, as high pressure builds in from the northeast.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1005 PM Wednesday... A slow moving cold front is currently pushing southward through the Mid Atlantic region this evening, and will move through central NC tonight. Several clusters of showers and storms in advance of the front remain tonight, with the most notable one across Davidson and Randolph Counties. This is where the best remaining instability resides, per the SPC meso page. There will continue to be a threat of flash flooding across the western Piedmont for the next several hours along this southward sinking cluster of storms, before nocturnal stabilization takes hold, resulting in more isolated convection until the front passes later tonight (similar to the coverage in the eastern half of the area now). Low temps tonight are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM Wednesday... Thursday and Thursday night, the sfc front should stall near or just southwest of our southern counties. Moisture pooling in vicinity of this feature should maintain mostly cloudy skies and a small threat for showers and possibly a thunderstorms, most probable during the afternoon hours. Otherwise northeast flow will temporarily usher a drier low level air mass into at least the northeast third of central NC. Potential for sfc dewpoints to lower into the upper 50s/around 60 from Raleigh north and east, and into the lower 60s in the NW Piedmont and the central Coastal Plain around GSB. Though afternoon temperatures will return to the mid 80s, the lower dewpoints will result in comfortable humidity levels. Much of the same Thursday night with more clouds SW and fewer NE. Under clear skies and calm wind regime, some of the cooler spots across the northern Coastal Plain into the northeast Piedmont should dip into the upper 50s/around 60 for overnight low temperatures. Elsewhere, min temps in the low and mid 60s will be common. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 PM Wednesday... Within relatively slow, blocked flow aloft across the CONUS during the medium range, the pattern over cntl NC will be dominated by a broad, re-loading trough centered over the GOM/Gulf coast states, and a downstream ridge extending across the top from the swrn N. Atlantic and cntl/ern Caribbean Sea nwwd across the upr Midwest. The (generally sly) flow between these two features will direct a plume of tropical moisture characterized by precipitable water values of 1.75 to 2.5" from the nwrn Caribbean Sea nwwd across the sern U.S., especially by early next week. At the surface, an initially cooler and drier continental air mass, accompanying modifying surface high pressure off the srn middle Atlantic coast, will extend wwd into NC on Fri. This ridge will then drift east of Bermuda through the weekend, with progressively modifying return flow throughout the sern U.S. through early next week. (Possibly tropical) low pressure over the GOM this weekend would likely meander slowly over the nrn GOM and Gulf coast states through the period owing to the ridge downstream, and over the top. Some "ring of fire" convection may skirt the wrn and srn Piedmont late Fri-Fri night, in a developing warm/moist advection regime directed there, with otherwise continued drier and more stable conditions in closer proximity to the offshore (deep layer) ridging. This regime will then likely edge ewd, with an associated good chance of showers and storms across cntl NC, on Sat. There may be a relative lull in convective probabilities/coverage, in briefly more pronounced ridging aloft downstream of the GOM low pressure, on Sun. It will then become increasingly unsettled, with high chance to likely probabilities of showers/storms, maximized with diurnal heating, Memorial Day through the middle of next week. High temperatures are likely to be near to slightly above normal, though modulated/hindered by convection/clouds especially early-mid next week, while low temperatures are likely to be a category or three above normal for the same reason. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 730 PM Wednesday... Scattered convection continues this afternoon, primarily at KRWI/KFAY with the bulk of the activity sinking south of KINT/KGSO before 8pm Wednesday. While no storms pose an immediate threat to the airport, addition develop may produce instances of sub VFR ceilings/visibilities. The threat for convection should diminish rapidly by 02z or so. After 06Z, areas of low stratus will develop in the NE low level flow behind the departing sfc cold front. Some uncertainty on timing and coverage of these low CIGS, so have kept sites VFR with CIGS dropping into the 3,000 - 4,000ft range. Periodic dips into MVFR CATs may occur on a local basis. A stable air mass will overspread the majority of the central NC Thursday and Thursday night, maintaining the VFR conditions. The only threat for isolated-scattered convection should be across the southern Piedmont, well south of the Triad, and west of KFAY.The atmosphere is projected to become increasingly moist and unstable from Friday and beyond, especially during the later half of the holiday weekend. This should lead to extended periods of sub VFR conditions, primarily related to ceilings. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BSD/Hartfield NEAR TERM...BSD SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...MWS AVIATION...JJM/WSS

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