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000
FXUS62 KRAH 221045
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
645 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A vigorous, but moisture-starved mid and upper-level disturbance
will pivot east across the region this morning. High pressure will
otherwise build across the Middle Atlantic states through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Monday...

Cloudiness will give way to mostly sunny skies, cool temperatures.

Patchy light frost possible tonight in the normally colder areas of
the Piedmont.

A strong upper level disturbance will push east across the region
this morning. There will be considerable cloudiness early and
possibly some sprinkles; otherwise, skies will become mostly sunny
as the base of the trough axis moves east this afternoon. Highs will
be cool, ranging in the lower to mid 60s.

Tonight, high pressure will be over the Appalachians early shifting
over the western and southern Piedmont tonight. Expect clear skies
and light wind with excellent radiational cooling. Lows 35-40
expected with 33-34 in some of the colder spots of the Piedmont.
Some patchy light frost will be possible in these areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 AM Monday...

Milder and mostly sunny.

High pressure will shift offshore Tuesday. This will allow a return
flow from the south-southwest around the high pressure. Expect
mostly sunny skies and moderating temperatures. Highs should jump
into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Lows Tuesday night will also be
milder with upper 40s to lower 50s expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 AM Monday...

Passing light rain, but mostly sprinkles, on Wed remain the only
rain chances through Sun. Temperatures will be on the rise to above
normal this weekend.

A northern stream shortwave will pivot across the northern Mid-
Atlantic Wed morning at the base of a parent low to its north over
Ontario. Central NC may see some glancing DPVA associated with this
wave across the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain and may
provide enough forcing within a thin band of mid-level moisture to
squeeze out some measurable precipitation. Further south, less
forcing and decaying light rain upstream would likely still result
in sprinkles into the early afternoon before shifting south and east
of the forecast area. Canadian high pressure will strengthen to
1030mb as it slides over the Great Lakes and push a cold front down
through the Mid-Atlantic and becoming stationary over the Southeast
by Thurs morning. Depending on the level of clearing the can occur
overnight and the timing of the fropa, which has a tendency to be
slower than coarse model guidance depicts, some patchy fog ahead of
the front would be possible.

Thur through Sun: High amplitude riding will build over the eastern
CONUS in response to upstream broad troughing pushing into the
western CONUS. Related surface high pressure will further strengthen
to 1035 mb off the Northeast coast and extend down through the
southern Mid-Atlantic for the remainder of the forecast period.
Forecast guidance continues the trend of keeping forcing and related
precipitation chances west of the mountains Fri through the weekend
in relation to the system moving through the Central/Northern
Plains. Closer to home, NWP guidance hints at some very light precip
chances this weekend over the Coastal Plain/Sandhills along an
inland retreating inverted trough as well as upslope flow induced
pulse convection within low-level moisture return and weak
instability in the NC Foothills and western Piedmont. However, as
mentioned in the previous discussion, proximity to gradually
increasing subtropical ridge will likely help suppress deep
convection. Low-level thicknesses are expected to gradually rise
through the weekend behind a warm frontal passage and a return of
above normal temperatures by Sun (highs in the upper 70s to low 80s
with lows in the 50s).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 240 AM Monday...

24 hour TAF period:

A return to VFR conditions is expected this morning, with VFR
tonight.

Outlook: Largely VFR conditions are expected through the week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Swiggett
AVIATION...PWB