Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 210732 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 330 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Continental polar high pressure will extend across the middle Atlantic states through the weekend. Low pressure is forecast to track east across the Gulf Coast states this weekend, then turn up the eastern seaboard early next week. This will bring unseasonably cool and wet conditions early to mid next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 330 AM Saturday... The center of the chilly, 1033 mb, surface high pressure was located over PA this morning. The ridge axis extended down the eastern seaboard into GA and FL. Very dry air was in place along the eastern states and this will be the case today and tonight. The high pressure will gradually move off the Mid-Atlantic coast later today and tonight allowing some modification in temperatures tonight. Sunny skies are expected today with only a few cirrus. Highs generally 67- 72. Mostly clear skies are expected tonight with milder lows in the lower to mid 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 330 AM EDT Saturday... Surface high pressure is expected to be reinforced over the Great Lakes into New England, then down into the Mid-Atlantic states Sunday into Sunday night. This occurs as a "closed" circulation or mid/upper low will track east across the Gulf Coast states. There will be increasing pressure gradient and wind associated with these features. There will be a very deep and moist sub-tropical connection that will be tapped and pulled NW into NC by late Sunday night as the mid/upper low approaches the TN valley region. The rain should hold off until Monday, but the cloudiness will increase Sunday and Sunday night. It will cap temperatures somewhat on Sunday, but keep them very mild Sunday night as the E-SE flow increases. Increasing cloudiness can be expected Sunday with highs in the 67-74 range N to S. Thickening and lowering cloudiness can be expected Sunday night with lows in the 50s.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 330 AM EDT Saturday... ...Another widespread soaking rain expected Monday afternoon into Tuesday night... A very impressive plume of deep sub-tropical moisture is expected to be tapped from the Caribbean and southwestern Atlantic into the developing storm system, as it tracks slowly toward our region from the Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley Monday into Tuesday. Rain is expected to develop/overspread the southern and western areas of central NC Monday morning, then eventually envelop the entire region by late Monday into Tuesday. Models are in general agreement in the track/strength of the mid/upper low as it tracks from northern MS NE toward the upper TN valley by 12z/Tuesday, then slowly northward into the lower Ohio Valley by 12z/Wednesday. The surface low track still is more uncertain given the spread in the guidance, especially by Tuesday night and Wednesday. However, it appears that a very deep influx of subtropical moisture will be lifted up and over the warm/occluded front as the low pressure approaches SC/southern NC late Monday into Tuesday. QPF of 1.5 to 2+ inches can be expected, with the higher totals likely in the western Piedmont where the stronger lift associated with the mid level low will be aided by the long SE fetch of deep subtropical moisture up into the higher Piedmont. A flash flood watch may be needed early next week given the current wet antecedent conditions, but highly dependent on the track of the aforementioned storm. Regardless, it appears to be a wet and cool start to the week aided by rain, clouds, easterly winds, and at least some form of Cold Air Damming early in the event. The chance of rain and showers will decrease after the system lifts north of the region mid-week. Temperatures may attempt to approach near normal daily highs by Wed or Thursday.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 128 AM Saturday... 24 Hour TAF Period: VFR conditions are expected to continue through the 24 hour TAF period, high confidence. Outlook: An approaching low pressure system early next week will increase the threat for MVFR/IFR VSBYS and CIGS with rain and fog across central NC. The threat for adverse aviation conditions appears greatest from late Monday afternoon through through Wednesday morning. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...Badgett

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